The NBA Rundown – FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Picks – April 7, 2021 (4/7/21)
In this article, we will be breaking down some of our favorite plays on the slate at their positions. Please note that players on DraftKings have multi-position eligibility and may not always match their position on FanDuel. Remember to always keep your eye on the news as the day progresses as NBA news changes the slate frequently.
Kyrie Irving – Though Kevin Durant is slated to return for the Nets, he likely will be eased back into action. James Harden has already been ruled out for the next ten days, so it will once again be the Kyrie show for the Nets. Over his last two games, Kyrie has seen 39 and 37 minutes with 34% usage or higher. Irving has attempted 55 shots over his last two games and that is an elite volume number for anyone PG or SG on this slate. The Pelicans have some injury and depth woes right now and have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to point guards on the season. This game should carry one of the highest totals on the night and it is now nine straight games that Kyrie has returned 4.5x or higher value on his salary – this sets us up with a tremendous floor.
Lonzo Ball – Ball has been on fire over his last two games, scoring over 52 fantasy points in each. on Tuesday, this came from just 29 minutes and a down shooting day, but nine boards, 11 assists, three steals, and two blocks made up for his 4-of-15 shooting night. The Pelicans and Nets have the highest total on the board this evening and the status of Brandon Ingram is still unknown at this time. Aside from Ingram, Alexander-Walker is out for an extending period, as is Josh Hart, and Kira Lewis Jr. is also questionable. This leaves a ton of guard minutes vacated and while I don’t think Lonzo plays all of them, it should certainly propel him into the mid-30s as long as this game stays competitive.
Devin Booker – The Jazz/Suns game is one of the better ones tonight from a competitive standpoint and also carries the third-highest projected total at 227. Ultimately on this slate, I am not in love with the shooting guard position. We are reaching that time of the year where we kind of know what we are getting with guys and we have established everyone’s ceiling. Example is a guy like Terrence Ross – if this was an important game for the Magic, I love his matchup with the Wizards tonight and would probably have a lot more ownership than I will, but with this team being out of it, the usage is staying the same and the minutes the dame. Can Ross get hot and hit a ceiling? Of course, but the ceiling is no longer matchup-based for me with some of these teams. It was a toss-up here between Booker and Mitchell and I think using either (or both) is fine, but the hot-hand between the two is Booker who has 20 or more FGA in each of his last three games and over 53 fantasy points in two of them. Booker hasn’t scored less than 32 points in either of his last three either and we are seeing a small spike in usage. In all, the Suns are red hot (ha) recently, scoring 121, 140, and 133. These two teams manage to hold each others shooting guards down a bit, but what happens when two strong forces meet?
Josh Richardson – This is definitely a bit of an obscure play, but it is elevated if Porzingis is out again tonight. If he plays, there is still some value on Richardson, though the ceiling definitely shrinks. I like this mostly due to the matchup with Houston. The Rockets are allowing the most fantasy points to shooting guards and 114 per game overall. There hasn’t been much success in stopping shooters if you are the Rockets – as they are allowing 47% from the field. If the Mavs are at full health though, this is the slimmest of GPP darts.
Aleski Pokusevski – Odds are if Poku is on this slate he is going to make this write-up for me. Poku has played 30 or more minutes in seven-straight games now and is averaging around 16 shots per game over his last four. While the fantasy numbers here aren’t sky high, we still are getting a floor of around 23 fantasy points and the upside for more. This is just a 19-year old kid still growing into the game, so the rebound and assist numbers will come with time. The Hornets here provide a solid matchup as they rank in the middle of almost all defensive categories but with no Gordon Hayward are way less effective. In fact, Charolette currently is allowing the most fantasy points to power forwards and third most to small forwards on the season.
Deni Advija – I think the smart play tonight is to save on small forward and Deni Avdija’s price is still very low here. The minutes have been key here as Avdija has played 39 and 40 minutes over his last two games. The usage is low here, but we do need the minutes to ever hope for the usage to increase. We are getting consistent shots up here, with at least ten in four straight games, and eight or more boards in five straight games, which is three above his season average. The Magic are allowing the most fantasy points to small forwards right now and though the place is going to be slower, the Wizards are clearly trying to get Avdija the most possible minutes.
Power Forward / Center
Clint Capela – Capela has double-digit rebounds in five straight games and over 43 fantasy points in three of them. Capela only played 28 minutes last start, but had a little influence to a 16-point loss. But not only are the rebound numbers higher here but the block numbers have been incredibly high with 16 blocks over his last four games. John Collins remains out for the Hawks here, so the legitimate size for the Hawks pretty much starts and ends with Capela. The Grizzlies are allowing the tenth most fantasy points to centers this year, though the difference between first and tenth is only about five fantasy points.
Tony Bradley – Isaiah Roby is already ruled out for this one and with the limited active size for the Thunder, Tony Bradley is actually seeing some decent usage and minutes as the new backup center. It’s now three straight games of 22 or more minutes and Bradley has pulled down an average of 7.5 boards per game in that stretch with at least one block in each. At just $4,000 and weirdly equal minutes to Moses Brown, Bradley has a window to 7x this salary.
Goga Bitadze – Myles Turner left Tuesday’s loss with a sprained ankle and I would be surprised to see him suit up tonight. Bitadze is dirt cheap on each site and has been producing low-key solid numbers recently with six of his last eight games being over 4.5x value. His last two games is where he has seen the most burn though, with 15 and 19 minutes and usage rates of 21% and 16%. If Turner does miraculously suit up tonight we can maybe discard this play, but if he is out this turns into one of the better absolutely value plays on the slate. I say maybe as Sabonis is also questionable, and though Bitadze doesn’t really play at the four, I can at least see him getting back to his 20-minute mark. The matchup with Minnesota doesn’t hurt here either with the Wolves giving up the second-most fantasy points to center this season.