MLB DFS: Breaking down the top daily fantasy baseball hitters and team stacks on FanDuel & DraftKings for April 7, 2021
Digging into today’s MLB DFS slate to highlight your best bats to stack.
In this article, we will cover two to three teams that we think are the most stackable for MLB contests. If you are newer to DFS or MLB, or just want a general refresher on the impact of stacking in MLB, check out our research done this off-season where we analyzed over 2,000,000 lineups to determine how many times a team of four or five hitters stacked from the same team won contests. In brief, 80.3% of winning lineups across 71 Main Slate tournaments (from 2020) had a stack of at least four players. 71.9% of that 80.3% had a stack of five players. It is pretty clear that stacking is the main strategy to focus on when it comes to MLB, therefore we will be approaching our hitters content from a stacking perspective.
Toronto Blue Jays (at Texas)
How can I accurately sum up how poor Kyle Gibson’s first start of the year was? Well, the 135.00 ERA might be a start – the 21 WHIP – maybe the -11.5 fantasy points. The point being here, it was bad. Is Kyle Gibson this bad of a pitcher? Of course not, that should go without saying – but the career trajectory hasn’t been on the rise since his great 2018 season and his first start isn’t out here promoting hope for us. Gibson is a typical sinkerball pitcher, you will want to get him early before he settles in and if he does settle in, he is going to live on the ground all day. It can be seen in his ERA by inning in his career also, Gibson has a 5.30 ERA in the first inning over his career, before settling a point lower for the second and third innings. The Rangers pitching staff as a whole has struggled this year, though they did manage six quiet innings on Monday leading to a win – this was really the first back-half shutdown for the Rangers all year so far and as a whole, they have allowed the fifth-most hits as a unit in the MLB so far and third most home runs. The goal for the Blue Jays here will be to get to Gibson early. It’s not saying if they don’t put runs up in the first that they aren’t going to get him, but it will be when Gibson is the most vulnerable. The Blue Jays bats have been just so-so to start the year, but Bo Bichette did hit two home runs on Tuesday and this lineup top to bottom is filled with young talent. Left-handed hitters have hit Gibson for a slightly higher average than righties, though in almost equal career at-bats, right-handed hitters have the home run advantage on Gibson. Gibson allowed a long ball every 5.5 innings last season and this Blue Jays lineup is going to be primarily stacked from the right-hand side as they don’t have a ton of LHH consistent starters. When it comes to raw potential to absolutely shell a pitcher, this is that scenario. This probably isn’t the sharpest stack – suggesting a stack against the lowest-priced pitcher on the board, but with one game samples on these pitchers, Gibson carries the highest chance of implosion again and at worst I don’t see a world where he completely turns into a Cy Young candidate after his first start that had to of shaken his confidence.
Minnesota Twins (at Detroit)
Matthew Boyd had a strong start to his 2021 campaign, twirling 5.2 innings of three-hit, no-run baseball which is an encouraging sign for the once highly-rated prospect of the Tigers. But, in what is a common theme amongst the teams I like to attack in DFS is Boyd has struggled a ton with home runs in the past. In 2019 in 32 starts, Boyd gave up an insane 39 home runs – or one every 4.7 innings. Last season in 12 starts, he gave up 15 home runs in 60 innings. I will need more data to tell me if Boyd has changed his ways this year but for now, I am still going to focus on the data from the past two years a ton. Boyd in his one start increased his slider percentage and sinker percentage, two pitches that if he can keep down in the zone can get him back to being a solid starter again. But the Minnesota Twins can be a different beast, they broke the record for single-season home runs in 2019 and while some of that team is gone, the likes of Cruz, Kepler, Polanco, Sano, and Buxton remain. This is also a group of guys who have faced Boyd at a decent clip with six projected starters for them all having taken Boyd deep at least once in their careers. Those players being Andrelton Simmons, Mitch Garver, Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler, Nelson Cruz, and Miguel Sano. The Twins rank second in the majors right now with eight home runs as a team and third with 31 RBI’s. Right-handed batters do the most damage against Boyd, averaging .266 with a .482 SLG%. A large majority of Boyd’s home runs given up have been against RHH at a near 6:1 ratio. We can get Buxton and Sano under $4,000 and while we will have to pay up for Nelson Cruz, he is hitting .538 with three home runs so far on the young season.