MLB DFS: Breaking down the top daily fantasy baseball pitchers on FanDuel & DraftKings for April 6, 2021
Diving into today’s MLB DFS slate to uncover your best pitching plays.
Before we get into the pitchers we like best on this slate, let’s quickly remind ourselves of some of the killer insights coming out of our pre-season lineup study articles. Specifically when it comes to the optimal spend level(s) on DraftKings in the best-performing lineups in 2020’s large field GPPs.
- Very few winning lineups had contrarian pitchers as their 1-2 punch on the mound.
- Only 5% of winning lineups rostered pitchers with ownership levels of 20% or less (combined).
- The optimal spend range is between $15,000 and $17,999 on DraftKings (winning over 52% of GPPs).
While this isn’t necessarily gospel and an absolute ‘must-follow’ approach for each and every slate, it’s a helpful reminder of the guiding principles that will help more often than they’ll hurt (over the long run).
Let’s dive into who we’re prioritizing for the slate.
Darvish and Giolito are the bigger names of course, who are set to do some nice damage on the Tuesday evening slate.
Between the two, Giolito owns the stronger matchup – even though the Vegas indicators may tell you that Darvish’s is a better one thanks to the 3.3 opponent total and 67% win%. The Mariners have a .310 wOBA vs RHP vs the Giants at .325 in their split, and there is a near 5% delta in K% for their opponents (SEA at 26% and SF at 21.6%). Both miss bats at an elite clip, with Giolito at a 17% whiff% vs Darvish at 14% to go along with very similar K% and SIERA marks in 2020. The one knock on Giolito comparatively is the higher walk rate, as his stuff can sometimes get away from him.
Between the two, I prefer Giolito here tonight and will be prioritizing him accordingly on the slate.
As for Peralta, this is a play that we need to make sure we give plenty of love to on DK for SP2 consideration. We can also give him a bit of love on FD if you want to punt your SP slot, though that’s not a path that often is necessary given that the pricing of attractive bats is always soft enough that you can pair them with elite arms.
Peralta’s always had the stuff to play at the MLB level, and his 2020 season out of the pen (primarily) was an indicator of just that. In fact, the numbers right now are eerily similar to a couple recent MIL breakouts that took big steps forward as starters after ‘figuring it out’ in a relief role earlier in their careers (Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes). Last year, his 14.6 K/9, 2.76 SIERA and 16% whiff% were all brilliant in 29.2 IP – but we all know going through the lineup multiple times is a far taller task. Given the raw ability and fact he could be a bit of a post hype prospect ready to break out as a rotation arm this year, he needs some DFS attention – even against a solid CHC lineup.