MLB DFS: Breaking down the top daily fantasy baseball hitters and team stacks on FanDuel & DraftKings for April 6, 2021
Digging into today’s MLB DFS slate to highlight your best bats to stack.
In this article, we will cover two to three teams that we think are the most stackable for MLB contests. If you are newer to DFS or MLB, or just want a general refresher on the impact of stacking in MLB, check out our research done this off-season where we analyzed over 2,000,000 lineups to determine how many times a team of four or five hitters stacked from the same team won contests. In brief, 80.3% of winning lineups across 71 Main Slate tournaments (from 2020) had a stack of at least four players. 71.9% of that 80.3% had a stack of five players. It is pretty clear that stacking is the main strategy to focus on when it comes to MLB, therefore we will be approaching our hitters content from a stacking perspective.
Colorado Rockies (vs Arizona)
We only had a few slates of non-Coors Field slates before we are right back in the fold. Unlike the first series of the year that featured the Dodgers, the Rockies should be the focused team here as through four games the Diamondbacks are 1-3 and have only scored five runs combined over their last three games. Luke Weaver will take the hill for the Diamondbacks and the one-time top prospect who showed a lot of promise for the Cardinals in 2017-2019 has had a tough go about it with the Diamondbacks so far. In 2020 in 12 starts, Weaver posted a 6.58 ERA and a WHIP of 1.558 – he also allowed 10 home runs in just 52 innings. Worse than the 2020 stats here would be the Spring Training stats as in 14.2 innings pitched, Weaver allowed 14 earned runs and eight home runs. Of course, these are just Spring Training numbers and we do not know exactly what pitchers are working on in their games, but eight home runs in 14.2 innings is a stat that is hard to ignore here. Weaver faced the Rockies twice last season, pitching a combined 8.1 innings and allowing eight earned, three home runs, and 13 hits. Though the season is incredibly young, the Diamondbacks pitching staff ranks third to last in the MLB for WHIP at 1.76 – this number is heavily inflated by allowing the most walks in the league – interestingly enough the team tied with them is this Rockies team. Despite this being a game at Coors, we actually can get some savings on Rockies players towards the bottom of the order. We will need to watch for lineups, but CJ Cron, Ryan McMahon, Raimel Tapia, and Garrett Hampson all sit at $3,700 or less on DraftKings.
New York Mets (at Philadelphia)
Chase Anderson takes the hill for the Phillies tonight as a pretty shaky fifth starter and a weaker pitcher we should look to attack on a slate that is mixed with front-end starters and some backend ones as well. Anderson posted a 1.63 WHIP in 2020 with a 7.22 ERA – during his 33.2 innings last season, Anderson allowed 11 home runs, which has been a trend all throughout his career, but more so from 2018 on. In 2018 Anderson allowed 30 home runs and in 2019 23. 2020 was by far the worst, allowing a home run every three innings. Anderson ranked towards the back 10% in a lot of percentiles last season, ranking in the bottom 1% of barrel rate – this can be seen pretty easily in translation to the home run numbers, when people hit Anderson they HIT him. The flip-side for Anderson is he did post career bests for K’s per nine, at 10.2. Historically, RHB have a .52 higher batting average at .275 compared to .223 against LHB so this shows some pretty extreme reverse splits – however 2020 stats see these evening out with both sides of the plate posting averages over .300. Anderson is going to be pretty live or die by the strikeout as if the Mets make contact here it will be hard contact. Anderson was able to keep his ERA low this Spring but still allowed two long balls. As mentioned this slate has names like Darvish, Kershaw, Giolito, and Glasnow on it, so the obvious choice here is to attack a guy like Anderson – though this thought process will likely make the Mets chalky as well. We have a few expensive options here in Lindor and Alonso, but if we slide down the order a bit we can find a lot of value. JD Davis, Dom Smith, Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil, and Michael Conforto all come in priced at $4,100 and below which can make a stack here very affordable. Michael Conforto has the most success here versus Anderson, though he only has three hits in 13 at-bats, all three have been for home runs. McNeil, Conforto, and Alonso all post elite slugging over .525 against right-handed pitching.