The NBA Rundown – FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Picks – April 4, 2021 (4/4/21)
In this article, we will be breaking down some of our favorite plays on the slate at their positions. Please note that players on DraftKings have multi-position eligibility and may not always match their position on FanDuel. Remember to always keep your eye on the news as the day progresses as NBA news changes the slate frequently.
Jamal Murray – This is easily one of the best overall plays on the slate today, and I simply wouldn’t overthink it. Not only has he been great in his last 2 games (52.2 and 34.6 FP vs PHI and LAC), but the Magic are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA against the position, too. His price point makes him easy to find room for as well. With the potential for 36+ minutes, 25%+ usage and something along the lines of 27-6-5-2-0 as a potential stat line, you’ll be hard pressed to find that kind of floor/ceiling value elsewhere.
Stephen Curry – Boy do the Warriors need him back, and it looks like he’s going to return here. Even though he missed Friday’s game against the Raptors, he’s expected back tonight against the Hawks and is going to be asked to play his typical focal point role on offense. He has a 33.1% usage rate in his last 5 games while averaging just over 32 MPG in that time, hanging a stat line of 29-5.8-5.6-1.2 on 47% shooting. He’s a premium priced option, but not unreasonably so across the industry. You can feel great about playing him as a building block today.
Will Barton – This is a gift of a matchup for Barton, who is locked into a starting role with the Nuggets playing against the worst defensive team vs SGs in the league. He was on an elite tear in mid to late March where he scored 30+ with regularity, but took a bit of a step back from the 24th to 30th of the month. Since then, he bounced back for 30.6 FP against the Clippers on Friday night. This is a thin position in DFS today, so Barton should be popular given the fantastic matchup on paper. Don’t let that scare you away though. He’s a great value with a high floor and strong ceiling in this matchup. Dillon Brooks and Seth Curry are the pivots here you also need to have on your short list.
Sterling Brown – He can be frustrating to own in DFS, as his production is not always tied to minutes. He’s a low usage guy that needs to both hit some of his shots and chip in on the defensive glass with solid rebounding efforts. However, he should get every chance to do so this evening with the Rockets playing without John Wall, Eric Gordon, David Nwaba, and Dante Exum. Look for 30 minutes here at a price that will make him easy to find room for, with potential for 20+ FP as a lineup stabilizer.
Kelly Oubre Jr – This is less of a play on his recent production and more of a bet on his stud teammate(s) returning to the floor to help keep the Warriors afloat in this one. Prior to a couple disappointing games where they were not only incredibly shorthanded, but embarrassed by the Raptors on Friday (130-77 loss), Oubre’s track record of production was much more stable. He had scored at least 26 fantasy points in 5 straight, reaching 33+ in 3 of those outings. He’ll generally log 33-36 minutes with low-20s usage, too. While the price is down and Curry’s return at a minimum is going to help in a big way, I’m buying low here.
Kevin Porter Jr – With John Wall and Eric Gordon off the floor this year, Porter is second on the Rockets in usage (27.3%) trailing only behind Christian Wood (28.8%) for top spot in the split. He averages over 36 FP per 36 minutes of action, and actually leads the team in market share of assists as well when there’s no competition with Wall in that regard. He’s put up back to back 30+ FP games against BKN and BOS, and should replicate that once again against the Pelicans in what is projected to be a 4 point game (in favor of NOP at -4).
Aaron Gordon – Well hello again, Mr Gordon. After pretty muted roles in his first two games as a member of the Nuggets, he burst on the scene against the Clippers a few days ago to play 39 minutes and finish with 44.2 FP. This is a dream matchup on paper – not to mention the revenge game narrative against his former team. If he’s looking at 33-36 minutes here (which he should easily accrue) and 18-20% usage, we’re talking about a sure-fire night of 35+ FP production at a great price across the industry.
Chuma Okeke – Easily the bigger beneficiary on the Magic from their trade deadline fire sale between he and Khem Birch, Okeke is showing that he is going to get all kinds of run with the starting unit – even in blowout situations. The Magic lost by almost 50 points against the Jazz yesterday, but Okeke was still out there for 33 minutes and had 22.2% usage. They’re clearly going to focus on his growth as key cog for Orlando’s future, and should be able to continue his streak of 31+ FP games to four here.
Clint Capela – I don’t see the value in paying up ~$2,000 more for Nikola Jokic or Joel Embiid (if he even plays on the back to back), so let’s turn our attention to the Hawks’ stud C at an even better price. The warriors are the worst team on the Sunday slate in terms of defensive efficiency vs opposing Cs, and Capela’s averaging nearly 1.4 FPPM right now thanks to elite rebounding and efficient shooting skills from within the paint. Not to mention ridiculously high blocks potential (11 in his last 2 games combined).
Onyeka Okongwu – Who? Well, he hasn’t really been on the DFS radar until his last game, when he played 19 minutes for the sort-handed Hawks and finished with nearly 30 fantasy points. He should get additional minutes here not only if Danilo Gallinari isn’t healthy enough to go here, but also in the potential situation that the Hawks could absolutely blow out the Warriors like the Raptors did on Friday night. If he finds his way to garbage time and/or as a rotation player if Gallinari sits, he could threaten for one of the highest ROI games on the slate. Note the risk though, in case Gallinari plays and/or you feel the Warriors are going to keep this one close.