The 2021 Valero Texas Open : The Primer – PGA DFS Analysis

Featuring in-depth analysis of The 2021 Valero Texas Open. Daily fantasy golf analysis for this week’s DFS slate to help you build winning cash game and tournament lineups on DraftKings.

Welcome to The Primer column for The 2021 Valero Texas Open! We are here to help you build your DFS lineups for FanDuel, DraftKings or whatever other sites you choose to play on (this article does have a DraftKings bias though).

In case you missed it – you can find my cheat sheet posted for The 2021 Valero Texas Open here!

Last week we saw the players tee it up at the WGC Dell Technologies Match Play Championship, with Billy Horschel holding off Scottie Scheffler in the finals to take home the title!  This week, the players head to TPC San Antonio to return to stroke play format, and while the field is pretty weak relatively speaking, we still have a good number of quality options teeing it up!  As for the track, it checks in just under 7500 yards, is a Par 72 and features four Par 5’s – so we’ll be looking for players who are elite ball strikers (SG: TTG, SG: APP, SG: OTT in that order) as well as players that have the ability to go low, rack up DKP through birdies and/or eagles.

Let’s have a look at five of my favourite options on the board this week at the 2021 Valero Texas Open on DraftKings!

The Best of the Best

  • Jordan Spieth, $10,700

What a difference a year makes.  Spieth comes into this one at 11-1, and in a weak field event, he is my favourite option on the board.  I’m not too worried about the price here – Spieth comes into this one with four top 15 finishes in his last 5 events, and he really has been playing great golf of late as he tries to regain his form from years ago.  I love what I’ve seen from him lately, and while the price is a little more than some are likely comfortable with, I feel like most of the field has a wart or two in their game this week and Spieth is my favourite option for this week’s event….something I never thought I would have said a year ago.  How far we’ve come…..

Others to Consider…

  • Corey Conners, $9,500

An elite ball striker (12th in SG: TTG, 12th in SG: APP, 14th in SG: OTT) – Conners’ game is a great fit for this course, evidenced by his 2019 win.  Like Spieth, he is a little more expensive than my comfort level would like – but all in all, in this field, I think he has one of the better chances of being in the thick of things on the leaderboard this weekend.  His recent form is great (7th at The PLAYERS, 3rd at Arnold Palmer) and really, the only thing I don’t like about him this week is the fact that I think he is going to be one of the highest owned golfers on the board.  With that said, however – I still love the play, I think he’s good chalk this week down in Texas.

  • Zach Johnson, $8,500

While he isn’t too long off the tee, it’s hard to argue how well ZJ has been playing, making 12 straight cuts so far in the 2020-21 PGA campaign. The price point is outstanding for him, and if you’ve been following the column for a while now – you’ll be on to the fact that I think something clicked late last summer with his game (mainly his putter – but he has gotten back to gaining strokes vs. the field with his approah again too, which is a big improvement from his blunders with ball striking that plagued him for a couple of seasons prior).  His metrics significantly improved and he’s been playing very stout golf ever since.  In a weak field event, I quite frankly think he is one of the better players on the board this week and love the price point here.

  • Joel Dahman, $8,200

Most of the season he has been a disaster – but he picked up a win down in Puntacana last week, and could potentially use that as a springboard to right the ship on his season.  He was a well above average ball striker last PGA season, ranking 29th in SG: OTT and 44th in SG: APP, and while he has carried over the strong play off of the tee into this campaign, his approach game had struggled, until last week.  A talented golfer, I’m going out on a limb here that something has clicked and that he’s about to go on a good run.  For $8,200 this week – I like the upside, and given the weak field win last week, I have a feeling many will just completely dismiss it.

Do Not Forget About…

  • Patton Kizzire, $7,200

I pounded the table for him being too cheap in his last event and he rewarded me by missing the cut.  This week, I have no problem doubling down here – I still think he’s too cheap, especially in an event with a field as weak as this one’s is.  He is an average PGA ball striker (which is pretty good for this event), and excels around the green, gaining strokes on the field both SG: ATG and SG: Putting.  I like his chances of bouncing back from his last tournament with a strong four rounds this week down in Texas.  For an affordable price just above punt level – sign me up!

About Brad

Brad hates the term fantasy sports expert, so instead he is someone who specializes in NFL, NHL and MLB DFS notes and analysis. He had a 68.2% win rate in 2015 NFL cash games to go along with a 83.5% win rate for the 2014 season. For NHL he had a 58.7% win rate in the 2015-16 season for cash games and a 66.2% win rate for the 2014-15 season. You can follow him on Twitter @bradsgotmoxy.

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