Fight Study (3/27/21)
The Co-Main Event of UFC 260 features a weltweight bout between the divison’s 10th ranked contender, Vicente Luque, and the former division champ (and current 7th ranked contender), Tyron Woodley. These fighters are trending in opposite directions and Luque is the heavy favorite in this fight. He will carry the bigger price tag in DFS contests with a salary of $9,100 on DraftKings and $21 on Fanduel. Woodley is going for $7,100 and $11 respectively. This fight has been set for three rounds and it is a small -140 favorite to go the distance.
Luque has won his last 2 fights and has won 8 of his last 9. His career record is 19-7-1 with 11 wins by KO/TKO, 6 wins by submission and 2 wins by decision. He is 12-3 in the UFC with finishes in 11 of those fights. He is coming off of consecutive finishes over Randy Brown and Niko Price. He has a fantasy average of 93.97 FPPF (DraftKings scoring – 110.97 FPPF on Fanduel), giving him the highest average of any fighter of UFC 260 with more than one UFC fight on their record. He is an outstanding striker who throws with high volume and power, and he is a solid grappler to boot. Since his UFC debut, he has lost just twice – to the likes of Leon Edwards and Stephen Thompson (both by decision). He has never lost by KO/TKO and the last time he was finished was by submission in July of 2013.
Woodley is a former welterweight champ with a career record of 19-6 with 7 wins by KO/TKO, 5 wins by submission and 7 wins by decision. He won the welterweight title in 2016 with his defeat of Robbie Lawler by first round KO. He went on to successfully defend his belt 4 times before losing it to Kamaru Usman in March of 2019. After losing the title, Woodley went on to lose his next two fights and is currently on a 3 fight losing streak. At age 38, he seems to be on a downward trajectory and his career in the UFC appears to be winding down. At his best, he was a dominating wrestler who smothered opponents with dominating ground and pound. He will need to turn back the clock on Saturday if he is to have a chance against Luque.
Luque is one of the most relentless fighters in the UFC and he figures to bring that tenacity to the octagon against Woodley. Woodley, on the other hand, has shown a precipitous decline over the past two years. If he is unable to change levels against Luque, this fight figures to end quickly. In an upright contest, Woodley has little chance against one of the best strikers in the welterweight division. In addition, Luque will be extremely motivated as a win over a top ten ranked contender should catapult him near the top 5 in the division. Luque has not yet hit age 30, and can begin a legitimate run at the title with a victory here. If he can finish Woodley quickly, the UFC will be forced to recognize his potential to make a run at the title.
Woodley has shown so little over his past three fights, and it seems his career is near the end. Luque figures to be much more than he can handle, and I expect Luque to get a finish here. As the second highest salary on both platforms, he will need to score well to bring value to his price tag. I expect he will have a good chance of doing that on Saturday. He is one of my favorite plays for both cash lineups and tournament play on both platforms. Woodley is going to get a pass for my money. He has not only lost 3 straight, but he was thoroughly dominated in each of them. I would not be surprised to see him retire if he loses again in similar fashion.
For more Fight Study, be sure to keep your eye on FantasyCruncher.com leading up to UFC 260 on March 27.
UFC 260: FIGHT #2, Luque vs Woodley
For Fight Study on UFC 260: FIGHT #1, Ngannou vs Miocic, click HERE.
For Fight Study on UFC 260: FIGHT #3, Almeida vs O’Malley, click HERE.