DraftKings & FanDuel NASCAR DFS – Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 – March 21, 2021

DraftKings & FanDuel NASCAR DFS – Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 – March 21, 2021

Core Plays

Kevin Harvick – DK: $11,000 | FD: $14,000 – Starting 7th

There are a handful of drivers with moderate success here at Atlanta, but none of them match up to the GOAT of Kevin Harvick here. Harvick has finished in the top ten here in nine of his last ten races with his last three here all being top five – with two of them being victories. While the finishing placement is a big encouragement here it is not what makes Harvick an elite play. The thing that pushes Harvick into the top play territory this week is his laps led at this track. Harvick has led 100 or more laps at Atlanta in seven of his last nine races here. Last June in his victory he led 151, his win in 2018 he led 181, and his ninth-place finish in 2017 he led 292. Harvick won’t have to fight far to get to the front with him starting seventh, but with an average finish of 6th since 2011 (with one 19th place finish skewing the number) the starting position won’t be a hindrance here. We always want to find a guy who can dominate a race and rack up fast laps and laps lead and going through drivers recent success, Harvick gives us the best chance at this.

Ryan Newman – DK: $7,100 | FD: $6,000 – Starting 28th

We’re going back in time a bit with this writeup as between Harvick and Newman we have almost 1,500 combined races between the two of them. Ryan Newman is not the driver he once was, with only three top-five finishes since 2018 but I do think there is some value to be had here as long as Newman finishes this race. Newman has an average finish of 13.5 over his last two races in Atlanta and a career average finish of 17th which is 11 off of our starting position of 28th here. Newman has had some good and some bad to start 2021, but focusing on the good we have a seventh-place finish in Miami and a 20th place finish at the Daytona Road Course in which he started 33rd. This is purely a differential play, as we are looking for Newman to climb into the mid-teens and coast from there. This is a track that is known for high speeds, and Newman did have three of the fastest laps at Miami which is another 1.5-mile offering. Outside of Newman, we are looking at the same high upside, low floor starters of Briscoe and Haley for basement value.

Cheat Sheet

$ TierD
High
Kevin Harvick
(11k / 61.08)
(14k / 61.08)
Brad Keselowski
(10.2k / 53.42)
(13k / 53.42)
Martin Truex
(9.6k / 52.92)
(13.5k / 52.92)
Joey Logano
(9.4k / 49.93)
(11.3k / 49.93)
Medium
Austin Cindric
(8.6k / 57.03)
(6.2k / 57.03)
Kurt Busch
(8.3k / 41.94)
(9k / 41.94)
Aric Almirola
(8k / 38.44)
(8k / 38.44)
Ryan Newman
(7.1k / 33.46)
(6k / 33.46)
Low
Chase Briscoe
(6.8k / 35.95)
(5.5k / 35.95)
Chris Buescher
(6k / 21.47)
(5.5k / 21.47)
Ryan Preece
(5.8k / 17.47)
(4.5k / 17.47)

About James Smizek

James is a daily fantasy sports veteran dating all the way back to his days of writing content on DraftStreet.com for contest tickets. James specializes in College Football - qualifying for the CFB World Championship in 2018, though you can find his content for NFL, NBA, MLB, and NASCAR on FantasyCruncher. James also picked up some new tricks during the sports shutdown, carving out a niche in League of Legends, Rocket League, and Call of Duty eSports. James currently resides in Wisconsin and is a huge Wisconsin sports fan. If you have any questions you can reach out to him @iKezims on Twitter.

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