DraftKings & FanDuel NASCAR DFS – Instacart 500 – March 14, 2021
Kyle Busch – DK: $10,800 | FD: $11,700 – Starting 7th
Kyle Busch without a doubt had the most disappointing and forgettable 2020 season for any high-tier driver. Luckily, 2021 has been off to a better start for Busch with a third-place finish at Vegas last week and a 10th at Miami. We still expect a little bit more out of Busch here but Phoenix is a track that should be able to get him going. Even in a disappointing 2020 season, Busch still finished 11th and 3rd in his two races at Phoenix and outside of that 11th place finish Busch had finished in the top ten in ten straight races here. Of those ten top-ten finishes, nine were top-five finishes, and seven were top-three. In Busch’s domination of this track during 2018 and 2019, he had four races where he led over 110 laps. Busch is the highest graded driver at this track by a longshot, making him a high upside pick to win this race.
Tyler Reddick – DK: $7,900 | FD: $7,500 – Starting 23rd & Cole Custer – DK: $6,700 | FD: $7,300 – Starting 24th
Reddick has only raced this track twice at the Cup level, with one of those ending early due to an accident. The other was a modest 19th place finish in November of last year. At the Xfinity level, this was a track that Reddick ended his career at pretty successfully with back-to-back third-place finishes. While Reddick likely doesn’t have a realistic path to winning here, there is some differential to be had and the price on FanDuel being lower than DraftKings really drives home the value there. The odds to win are 66-1 here, but I think the field over-rosters Chase Briscoe this week, while he is $400 cheaper and starts 26th, his odds to win are almost triple of Reddick’s at 150-1. Ultimately, the odds to win aren’t something we need to care about a ton, as we really know the drivers who are going to compete for the checkered flag every week. The problem for me this week is it feels like there are more drivers who can lose me points then gain them for me at the lower level. Going below the $7,000 price tag, only one driver between $5,500-$7,000 starts further back than 30th. I am fine with pivoting this play to Cole Custer at $6,700 for the savings, as Custer did have a top ten finish here last March. Custer has seen similar success at Phoenix in his Xfinity career with an average finish of 8th, but that number is swayed by one 21st place finish – outside of that, it has all been top eight with two top-fives. It would be the easy way out to just write-up Cole Custer weekly, but his price remains too low weekly in my opinion. Reddick is the lower-owned driver here and a bit of a dark-horse pick for me this week.
$ Tier D High Kevin Harvick (11.9k / 74.81) (14k / 74.81) Kyle Busch (10.8k / 61.77) (11.7k / 61.77) Medium Ryan Blaney (9.3k / 45.42) (10.5k / 45.42) Alex Bowman (8.7k / 48.77) (9k / 48.77) William Byron (8.3k / 41.29) (10k / 41.29) Tyler Reddick (7.9k / 42.10) (7.5k / 42.10) Kurt Busch (7.7k / 44.32) (9.5k / 44.32) Low Cole Custer (6.7k / 33.42) (7.3k / 33.42) Daniel Suarez (5.9k / 20.64) (4.5k / 20.64)