DraftKings & FanDuel NASCAR DFS – Pennzoil 400 – March 7, 2021
Joey Logano – DK: $10,000 | FD: $13,000 – Starting 15th
Logano checks all the boxes for me this week when analyzing a driver without qualifying or practice times. I have covered this before but those criteria are: Ability to gain differential points, ability to lead laps, and historical success. Starting with differential, we get a 15th place start, which will be the second furthest Logano has started at Las Vegas since all the way back to 2013. As for the ability to lead laps, Logano has led 25 or more laps at Vegas in eight of his last ten races here – including 105 back in 2019, and 54 back in February of 2020. Logano has an average finish of 8th at this track but has nine top-ten finishes in his last ten races here including two wins. Logano is the sixth most expensive driver on DraftKings this week, but has the fourth-best odds to win.
Cole Custer – DK: $6,500 | FD: $7,300 – Starting 20th
Custer is a bit of a dark horse for me this weekend and we get a pretty cheap price on each site for him. Custer will start this race 20th, but as we look at the pricing tiers on the respected DFS sites, Custer has 66-1 odds to win this race and that is better than six (almost seven) drivers priced above him. Last year Custer ran this track twice, with an average finish around 17.5. Prior to his rookie season at the cup level, Custer ran this race five times at the Xfinity level, starting from the pole three times and finishing with an average finish of 7.2. At worst here, I think Custer can maintain his position as over the last year, at tracks that are 1.5-miles long, Custer has finishes of 14th twice, 16th, 12th, 7th, and of course we can’t forget his first-place finish at the 1.5-mile in Kentucky. Of course, these tracks aren’t all the same, but they do share some similarities. I don’t really think Custer makes a run at a checkered flag here, or even a top-five – but I do believe he is underpriced and offers us value this week.
$ Tier D High Ryan Blaney (10.8k / 64.81) (10.7k / 64.81) Joey Logano (10k / 61.83) (13k / 61.83) Denny Hamlin (9.2k / 47.81) (12k / 47.81) Medium Alex Bowman (8.8k / 39.75) (9.5k / 39.75) Aric Almirola (8.6k / 53.24) (7.5k / 53.24) Christopher Bell (7.7k / 34.22) (8.5k / 34.22) Chase Briscoe (7.4k / 46.23) (7k / 46.23) Low Erik Jones (7.1k / 41.20) (4.7k / 41.20) Cole Custer (6.5k / 27.17) (7.3k / 27.17) Justin Haley (5.4k / 20.13) (4k / 20.13)