DraftKings & FanDuel NASCAR DFS – O’Reilly Auto Parts 253 – February 21, 2021
Chase Elliot – DK: $10,700 | FD: $14,000 – Starting 1st
This week has the Cup Series still at Daytona but for the second-ever Daytona Road Course at the Cup level. Chase Elliot will start on the pole this week and typically we aren’t going to target drivers who start first, but this is going to be an exception. There are really two drivers in the field who are absolutely dominant at road course racing and that s Chase Elliot and Martin Truex Jr. Both of these guys are in play here, and Truex is really interesting this week as he starts 19th. I think both of these guys end up as chalk, but I do think Truex will be higher owned which might make Elliot a little better for tournaments – ultimately, using both may be optimal here. For Elliot though, it isn’t too hard to sell the play – in his last four road course races – he has won them all. That includes last year at the Daytona Road Course where he started seventh and led 34 laps en route to the checkered flag. In all four races that he has won, he has led at least 27 laps – at Watkin’s Glen he started on the pole and led 80 of the 90 laps. Michael McDowell starts this race second, with Austin Dillon starting third – I do not anticipate either of these guys being able to take the lead from Elliot early. The only worry is Denny Hamlin starting fourth, but I am more willing to be that Elliot dominates the early stages of this race and remains in contention throughout.
Erik Jones – DK: $7,800 | FD: $8,000 – Starting 37th
Jones checks a few boxes for us this week and those are far back starting position, cheaper than average price, and sneaky success at road courses. If we remove a 40th place finish at the Charolette Roval back in 2019, then Jones would have four straight top-eleven finishes, all of which were net positive of his starting spot. At the Dayton Road Course last August, Jones starting 20th and finished 11th. A few months later, Jones had his best career finish at a road course, finishing third at Charolette after starting 14th. In my opinion, there is a pretty big line in the sand when it comes to racing on road courses – either statistically, the driver gets it, or they don’t. We can wipe out half the field from this race just based on their past averages. I like the hedge here of starting Elliot and Jones together, as you are counting on one to dominate and one to consistently climb.
$ Tier D High Martin Truex (11k / 64.64) (13.5k / 64.64) Chase Elliott (10.7k / 56.74) (14k / 56.74) AJ Allmendinger (10.2k / 58.38) (12k / 58.38) Kyle Busch (10k / 55.63) (12.5k / 55.63) Denny Hamlin (9.8k / 42.62) (12k / 42.62) Medium William Byron (8.8k / 48.19) (9.6k / 48.19) Matt DiBenedetto (8.1k / 36.93) (8.3k / 36.93) Erik Jones (7.8k / 52.96) (8k / 52.96) Low Anthony Alfredo (5.9k / 20.69) (5.5k / 20.69) Justin Haley (5.4k / 20.10) (4k / 20.10)