DFS Analysis for Overeem vs Volkov from The UFC Apex on Fanduel
The UFC is back in Las Vegas for MMA action at their Apex facility. Here are two of my favorite underdog plays based on their value in DFS contests on Fanduel.
DARRICK MINNER (FD $10) – In his last four victories, Minner has won each by first round submission. In fact, Minner has 25 career wins and 22 of those wins have come by submission. Most recently, he defeated T.J. Laramie by guillotine choke 52 seconds into the first round last September. He faces Charles Rosa who is an accomplished grappler himself with 8 of his 13 career wins coming by submission. If this fight goes to the mat, fight fans are sure to witness some high level grappling.
Caveman’s advice: Although the betting lines suggest that Rosa is the superior fighter in this matchup, on the ground I believe this fight could easily go either way. With 22 career submissions, Minner is clearly capable of finding a win against anyone willing to grapple with him. As an extremely inexpensive play in DFS contests on Fanduel Saturday, Minner is a great GPP play for his small salary with finishing potential. Remember, we’re talking underdogs here, but when rostering dogs in your lineup, one’s with the upside potential of Minner deserve a fair amount of exposure.
(At the time of this writing, Darrick Minner is +156 with the oddmakers and has a projected score of 47.81 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
YANA KUNITSKAYA (FD $8) – Over her last 4 fights, Kunitskaya has won 3 of them including an impressive unanimous decision victory over Marion Reneau. She will face a very dangerous Ketlen Vieira on Saturday as a significant underdog. Vieira missed weight on Friday coming in 2 pounds heavier than the maximum allowable 136 lb. for bantamweights. This is certainly worth noting as it might suggest poor conditioning which could indicate a vulnerable fighter.
Caveman’s advice: Kunitskaya has a solid 55.6 FPPF average and is priced at the lowest salary on Fanduel this Saturday. It is impossible to read too much into the Vieira weigh-in situation, but giving Kunitskaya bigger exposure now is not an overreaction. Given that she has a solid average and that her bargain salary will allow DFS players more salary at the top of their lineups, give Kunitskaya measured exposure in GPP contests and don’t hesitate to give her some love in cash contests as well.
(At the time of this writing, Yana Kunitskaya is +218 with the oddmakers and has a projected score of 42.20 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
That’s all for this week. Good luck with your lineups!