DFS Analysis for Blaydes vs Lewis in Las Vegas on DraftKings (2/20/21)
The UFC makes its way back to Las Vegas and the The Apex facility for MMA action on Saturday. Here are two of my favorite plays based on their value in DFS contests on DraftKings.
CHRIS DAUKAUS (DK $8,600) – Daukaus has been a force in his brief UFC career scoring first round wins by KO/TKO in both of his trips to the octagon thus far. In his last fight, he finished Rodrigo Nascimento Ferreira just 45 seconds into the fight. With fantasy scores of 128.5 and 116.5 he carries an average of 122.5 FPPF. He has landed 50 significant strikes in 5:13 inside the octagon and is averaging 76.9 strikes thrown per five minute round while landing 48.1 significant strikes per round. Only Tom Aspinall is landing at a higher rate of all fighters on this card. He faces longtime combat veteran, Aleksei Oleinik, on Saturday and will not only be the favorite, but he is a -140 favorite to finish Oleinik inside the distance.
Caveman’s advice: There is some cause for concern as Oleinik has both a four inch reach advantage and loads of experience at this level. However, given Daukaus’ ability to score in the 120 fantasy point range, his price tag well belol $9K is just too enticing to pass on in DFS contests. He is a top GPP play and should play well in cash contests as well. Oleinik is a threat with 3 of his last 4 wins coming by submission, but if Daukaus is able to keep this fight upright, his ceiling is extremely high. Give Daukaus lots of love as I predict another win by KO/TKO for him on Saturday.
(At the time of this writing, Chris Daukaus is -176 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 64.84 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
PHILLIP HAWES (DK $8,200) – In his debut, Hawes got a KO win over Jacob Malkoun just 18 seconds into his UFC career. It was his 5th straight first round finish and his 7th first round finish in his 11 fight career. In fact, outside of his two losses, Hawes has finished his opponent in all 9 victories to date. In his only UFC fight up to this point, Hawes put up a fantasy score of 103.5 points and it took him just 7 significant strikes landed to accomplish the feat. He now faces Nassourdine Imavov as a small favorite. He will have a 2.5 inch reach advantage despite giving up 3 inches in height.
Caveman’s advice: Both fighters in this matchup are solid wrestlers and this means that Hawes’ advantage in striking figures to the be difference in this fight. Imavov has 4 submissions in 9 victories, but Hawes is a good grappler and is the much stronger fighter in this matchup so I don’t anticipate much danger awaits him. Current odds make Hawes a small +115 dog to finish Imavov making him a great GPP play for a fighter with significant finishing potential at a price just a hair over the average. At this price, he should figure heavily into most multi-entry contest strategies.
(At the time of this writing, Phillip Hawes is -123 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 57.11 on Fantasy Cruncher.)