The 2021 Genesis Open: The Primer – PGA DFS Analysis

Featuring in-depth analysis of The 2021 Genesis Open. Daily fantasy golf analysis for this week’s DFS slate to help you build winning cash game and tournament lineups on DraftKings.

Welcome to The Primer column for The 2021 Genesis Open! We are here to help you build your DFS lineups for FanDuel, DraftKings or whatever other sites you choose to play on (this article does have a DraftKings bias though).

In case you missed it – you can find my cheat sheet posted for The Genesis Open!

This week, there are no shortage of quality options teeing it up at Riviera Golf Club in California as we have a very strong field teeing it up this week.  As a result, we have quality golfers priced down, with viable options into the high 6k range when it comes to building line-ups this week.  As for the track, we have a Par 71 checking in just over 7300 yards here, and historically speaking the cream of the crop tends to rise to the top here with quality golfers littered with top finishes over time.  In terms of metrics to attack, SG: APP, SG: TTG and SG: OTT are all things that I’ll be looking at heavily, along with course history and recent form.  So, let’s dive in and look at some ways to approach building line-ups this weekend!

Last Week’s Picks

  • Daniel Berger – win
  • Henrik Norlander – T26
  • Matthew Nesmith – T16
  • Doug Ghim – T21
  • Bo Hoag – MC

The Best of the Best

  • Xander Schauffele, $9,900

While I like DJ, Schauffele and Jon Rahm are a close 2-3 for me (in that order).  Xander comes into this one playing arguably the best golf on tour with 3 straight top five finishes that include two seconds, and 6 top 5 finishes in his last 8 events.  With recent form as strong as that, and elite metrics across the board (highlighted by his 2nd in SG: Total, 5th in SG: TTG, among others) – there isn’t too much downside here with the pick outside of the fact that he may end up being the highest owned option on the slate.  With that said, I do like his chances of being in the mix this weekend, and he’s my favourite dollar for dollar option on the board.

Others to Consider…

  • Jordan Spieth, $9,200

I honestly can’t tell you the last time that I touted Spieth.  It has been seasons.  Which means either:

  1. I am too late here and am chasing points
  2. He is too cheap and has regained his old form

Of course, if I believe the above are the only two possible outcomes than perhaps number 3 should be that I am delusional.  Now that I’ve set up this write-up, simply put – I like what I see from him coming into this one with back to back top 5 finishes.  The price point here is outstanding, and while I’d like to see a bit better ball striking from him, his game off the tee gained strokes on the field a week ago, and he ranked 10th in SG: APP at least week’s tournament and 6th in SG: TTG at last week’s event, so he comes into this one playing well.  His short game has been outstanding all season long, ranking 5th on tour in SG: ATG, and if he can keep striking the ball well, we could see a bit of a resurgence from Spieth in 2021.

  • Russell Henley, $7,800

His showing at the Waste Management was a little disappointing for me, but I continue to like what I see from Henley (for his price).  he ranks 4th on tour and leads all players on tour who have played at least 20 rounds in SG: APP – and on a course where that is going to be of paramount importance, give me the player that hits fairways (7th), hits greens (7th) and throws darts (4th).  He’s missed a couple cuts of late, so there’s no sure thing – but then again, if he was a little bit more stable, he’d be priced at $8,500-$9k.  There’s a ton of upside here at the price point and I like his chances of having a good showing in California this week.

  • Corey Conners, $7,500

You can flip a coin as to if his short game will show up (149th on tour in SG: ATG and 104th in SG: Putting) – but if his short game clicks, he’s a contender.  An elite ball striker (22nd in SG: TTG), Conners comes into this one playing really good golf, making nine straight cuts to go along with six top 20 finishes over that stretch.  He’s got the game to compete in a loaded field event, something that can’t be said about every player priced in this range – and while he won’t be low owned, I’m not expecting him to be too chalky either, which is a nice bonus this week.

Do Not Forget About…

  • Doug Ghim, $6,900

I continue to like what I’ve seen from Ghim, who makes for an interesting pivot off of some of the more popular options available in the $7k-$7.5 price range this week.  While his game off the tee is far from a sure thing, the rest of his game is rock solid, led by his ability to make shots, ranking 31st on tour in SG: APP, 33rd in SG: TTG and 29th in SG: Total.  He was 19th in the field in SG: TTG a week ago at the AT&T, and while the field is stronger here, getting a player with the metrics that you see for Ghim for under $7k is very intriguing.  There’s risk here of course, but I like the upside at the price point and think he’s worth including if you are looking for a value option in single entry formats, or for an over-weight position relative to the field in MME formats.

About Brad

Brad hates the term fantasy sports expert, so instead he is someone who specializes in NFL, NHL and MLB DFS notes and analysis. He had a 68.2% win rate in 2015 NFL cash games to go along with a 83.5% win rate for the 2014 season. For NHL he had a 58.7% win rate in the 2015-16 season for cash games and a 66.2% win rate for the 2014-15 season. You can follow him on Twitter @bradsgotmoxy.

Check Also

2021 WGC – Workday Championship: DraftKings PGA DFS Daily Cheat Sheet

DraftKings PGA DFS GPP Cheat Sheet for The 2021 WGC – Workday Championship.  Featuring top …