The 2021 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: The Primer – PGA DFS Analysis

Featuring in-depth analysis of The 2021 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Daily fantasy golf analysis for this week’s DFS slate to help you build winning cash game and tournament lineups on DraftKings.

Welcome to The Primer column for The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am! We are here to help you build your DFS lineups for FanDuel, DraftKings or whatever other sites you choose to play on (this article does have a DraftKings bias though).

In case you missed it – you can find my cheat sheet posted for The 2021 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am!

This week, we have a pretty weak field teeing it up at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am – but even with that in mind, someone’s gotta win, so let’s have a look at some ways to approach the field this week!  The players will be teeing it up, playing a round at Pebble Beach and Spyglass on Thursday/Friday before returning to Pebble Beach for a pair of rounds for those that make it to the weekend.  It looks like the forecast for Sunday is for the winds to really pick up, which should make for a very interesting final round of the tournament.  The courses here are Par 72’s, checking in just over 7,000 yards – and with tough greens, we’ll be looking for ball strikers (SG: APP), putting a little bit more weight on some of the better putters in the field (SG: Putting) and players that come into this one with strong recent form…so let’s have a look at some of my favourite plays on the board for this week’s tournament!

Last Week’s Picks

  • Xander Schauffele – T2
  • Will Zalatoris – T17
  • Russell Henley – T30
  • Si Woo Kim – T50
  • Sebastian Munoz – MC

The Best of the Best

  • Daniel Berger, $10,100

Berger’s stats haven’t been as strong so far in the 2021 PGA season – but there’s still plenty to like.  He’s been putting great, ranked 21st on tour in SG: Putting and while his 34th ranking in SG: Total is a far cry from his 6th place finish a year ago, I think it’s only a matter of time before he works his way up the charts.  In a weak field event, I like his chances of going low at this weekend’s tournament and he makes for an interesting pivot if you dont want to pay up for Cantlay this week.  He won’t be low owned, in fact – he’ll be one of the highest owned on the slate, but for good reason.  He came 5th at the event a year ago and I like his chances of being in contention this weekend as well.

Others to Consider…

  • Henrik Norlander, $8,700

If you had told me a year ago I’d be touting Henrik Norlander for $8,700 for a Korn Ferry Event, let alone a PGA event, I would have said:

  1. I will never tout a Korn Ferry Event (which would be false, thank you 2020)
  2. I will never recommend that guy

His SG: TTG metrics were some of the worst in the game for the 2018 and 2019 PGA seasons, and although a lot of the introduction here was for theatrics, he really has made great strides in his game and is playing outstanding golf since mid last summer.  So far in the 2020-21 campaign he ranks 32nd on tour in SG: APP, 33rd in SG: TTG and 37th in SG: Total, which in a weak field event are among the leaders in each of the respective categories….all very good numbers for this week’s field.  He comes into this one with great recent form, and I like his chances of keeping things rolling this week.  I also don’t think he’ll be too popular given the fact that he was one of the most hated DFS players as recent as last summer.

  • Matthew Nesmith, $8,000

The opposite of the above pick, Nesmith will have you thinking I may have just temporarily lost my mind with the above recommendation.  He’s an elite ball striker, ranking 12th on tour in SG: APP and comes into this one fresh off a 7th place finish.  The price point here is affordable and I like him to really have a breakthrough season.  I wouldn’t be shocked one bit to see him carry over his strong play from a week ago into this week’s event.

  • Doug Ghim, $7,500

Speaking of the Korn Ferry Tour, the 2019 grad comes into this one off of two straight made cuts, and he’s really been playing some strong golf.  He ranks 25th on tour in SG: APP and 31st in SG: Total so far this season and while his 19 rounds are a small sample size, for his mid $7k price point, he offers arguably as much upside as anyone on the board.  He seems to be able to rack up the birdies, ranking 12th on tour in Birdie average and I think he is one of the best value plays on the board for this week’s event!

Do Not Forget About…

  • Bo Hoag, $7,300

Ok – he’s not an elite ball striker, but if you are looking for a sub $7,500 golfer who I like to make the cut this weekend who has some upside, Hoag is an excellent option.  He’s done a great job of hitting greens in regulation, ranking 36th on tour in that metric and while I’d like to see him throw a few more darts than he does out there, that really does help raise his floor.  We’ve seen him play pretty consistent golf over the last little bit, coming into this one making 5 of his past 6 cuts including 4 top 30 finishes over that stretch.  I think the fact that he loses shots on the field in SG: APP will be enough to keep his ownership levels in the single digits, and I like the upside for him as the 5th or 6th golfer in some of your MME line-ups this week.  I wouldn’t be one bit surprised if we see him with another top 30 finish this week.

About Brad

Brad hates the term fantasy sports expert, so instead he is someone who specializes in NFL, NHL and MLB DFS notes and analysis. He had a 68.2% win rate in 2015 NFL cash games to go along with a 83.5% win rate for the 2014 season. For NHL he had a 58.7% win rate in the 2015-16 season for cash games and a 66.2% win rate for the 2014-15 season. You can follow him on Twitter @bradsgotmoxy.

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