The Cruncher List for Super Bowl LV – DraftKings Showdown and FanDuel Single Game Analysis

The Cruncher List | Super Bowl LV FanDuel & DraftKings NFL DFS Showdown and Single Game Lineup Advice, Tips & Picks.

Here to help you build the best possible FanDuel & DraftKings NFL Super Bowl LV line-ups!

Kansas City (-3) @ Tampa Bay, Projected Total: 56 points

Kansas City – Projected total: 29.5 points

QB Patrick Mahomes DK: $12,000 FD: $16,500
RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire DK: $7,000 FD: $10,000
RB Darrel Williams DK: $5,200 FD: $9,000
WR Tyreek Hill DK: $10,400 FD: $14,000
WR Mecole Hardman DK: $5,600 FD: $7,500
WR Sammy Watkins DK: $4,200 FD: $7,500
TE Travis Kelce DK: $11,000 FD: $14,500
K Harrison Butker DK: $4,000 FD: $8,500
DST Chiefs DK: $2,600 FD: NA

Tampa Bay – Projected total: 26.5 points

QB Tom Brady DK: $10,000 FD: $15,000
RB Leonard Fournette DK: $7,800 FD: $12,500
RB Ronald Jones DK: $2,200 FD: $8,000
WR Mike Evans DK: $8,400 FD: $11,500
WR Chris Godwin DK: $8,800 FD: $12,000
WR Antonio Brown DK: $6,200 FD: $9,500
TE Rob Gronkowski DK: $3,000 FD: $6,500
TE Cameron Brate DK: $4,800 FD: $7,000
K Ryan Succop DK: $3,800 FD: $8,500
DST Bucs DK: $2,800 FD: NA

It’s been a wild ride to get to this point – but it’s here!  Super Bowl LV comes to us live from Tampa on Sunday night where the Bucs will be making history, playing at home in the Super Bowl as they take on Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in what should be a very entertaining game to cap off the season.  Both teams have plenty of weapons on offence, and both teams also have defences that have made it tough on opposing offences most of the season – so it should be a fascinating game to see it all play out.  Of course, it wouldn’t be the Super Bowl without narratives all over the place…..but you’ll hear enough about them all over the media in the next 24 hours, so let’s get right to it and have a look at some ways to approach Showdown line-up construction on DraftKings and the single game format on FanDuel!

The Passers

Both are going to be popular and for good reason.  Mahomes will be the highest owned player on the slate on both sites, and will also be the highest owned Captain on DK and MVP on FD….also for good reason.  The game here has a projected total of 56 points, and quite frankly – I find it pretty hard to imagine a game script unfolding that doesn’t result in both of the QB’s having productive fantasy days to the point where you’d want to go under-weight the field on either of them.  I just think too many points go up on the board, likely via the passing game, so for single entry, it’ll be tough to get away from using both of them, and for MME – I think you’ll want significant exposure to both….however:

If most of the aerial production goes the way of one receiving option, and you can nail that option – that is where you can get away with fading one of the QB’s, and I’d make sure to have some MME line-ups dedicated to that strategy.  If the game does play out that way and you do have some line-ups built under that premise – you will have a significant jump up on more than half the field (in the case of Brady) or possibly on 70-80% of the field (in the case of Mahomes).

The RB’s

I really don’t have too much interest here.  None of them will be overly popular as there is at least some uncertainty in both backfields in terms of how the touches and snaps will be distributed.  With another week to heal up for CEH – I would anticipate that he likely sees more touches and snaps than Darrel Williams this week after liking the spot for Williams in the AFC title game….but the Chiefs have probably been happy with the production from Williams, so I don’t think we’ll see CEH with bellcow status.  The best approach here is probably to get exposure to each of them, though I don’t hate the idea of opting for a fade or significant under-weight position on the Chiefs backfield for contests for the Super Bowl.  After-all, the TB front seven has been the best in the business at limiting production to opposing backs over the past 24 months by a pretty wide margin.  If I had to sum up my thoughts on them in one line it would be that I’d only have minimal exposure to the RB’s here as a contrarian approach, but I would be surprised if we saw a repeat of last year’s Super Bowl where Damien Williams led the way for KC.  I don’t think CEH or Darrel will give us an encore this year.

As for the Bucs, I like the backs here a little bit better.  Key word being a little bit.  I still like RJII more than most.  Priced so cheap on DK this week at $2,200 – I think he has plenty of value appeal if he gets rolling early.  Of course, as is the case with anyone priced so cheap – there is tons of risk here.  He could very well put up less than 2 fantasy points again.  But, I think it’s worth the gamble against a Chiefs defence that can be vulnerable to opposing RB’s.  He looked great in round 2 before being almost useless in the NFC title game, rushing 10 times for 16 yards while Fournette went for 12-55-1 while adding 19 yards on 5 catches and producing enough to have a Playoff Lenny hat printed.  Fournette is the safer choice here – but he’s also significantly more expensive on DK, and to me – I do prefer other options on the board for a little bit more than Fournette costs.  He won’t be popular though, and is worth including in your player pool for modest exposure in MME formats.

The Pass Catchers

Kelce or Hill.  Hill or Kelce.  I don’t know.  I really don’t.  You probably want significant exposure to both, and it’s worth having a few line-ups with both of them in it without Mahomes in it in case they drive all of the fantasy production for KC and outpace Mahomes.  I think Kelce has the higher floor and Hill has the higher ceiling.  Act accordingly depending on what your preference is – but I would say that you’ll want to get significant exposure to both (or pick based on your preference for single entry).

Outside of them, for KC – I don’t have too much interest here.  It looks like WR Sammy Watkins is going to play after being a full participant in Friday’s practice.  I wouldn’t go nuts here, but I would sprinkle in a few line-ups with him if you are playing near max entries.  I do prefer Mecole Hardman however, and by a pretty wide margin.  People have been burned by using him in games when a WR comes back for KC (including Sammy Watkins and his return from various ailments) – however, I really do think that Hardman will play significant snaps in this one, maybe even more than Watkins.  I also may be a fool – so keep that in mind.

As for the Bucs, WR Antonio Brown will be back in the fold for this one.  My order of preference for the WR’s here for TB goes: Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, AB.  Godwin has the highest floor of the Bucs WR’s, but I’d say the highest ceiling is with Mike Evans with how often he gets looks in the endzone and with his big play ability.  AB is listed at 100% health wise, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s hobbled in this one and less than 100%, so sprinkle in a little bit of exposure to Scotty Miller as a $3,400 value play on DK.

As for the TE’s, Brate should be good to go, though he did miss one session this week.  He has taken over as the primary pass catcher at the position in the playoffs and is a solid value play (though DK makes it a little tough having him up at $4,800).  I wouldn’t be shocked to see him find the endzone in this one.

Kickers and defences are worth keeping in your player pool this week….my gut tells me that TD’s are going to go up on the board in this one so I wouldn’t go nuts with exposure to either kicker (~20% max) but I do prefer the K’s to the DST units in this one by a pretty wide margin.  Kickers remain a strong option for cash or head to head games, and generally have pretty decent floors relative to their price points, however.

I think if you are looking to push an edge in fact, you could make an argument to just remove the DST options on DK altogether to narrow down the player pool a little bit to add some more concentration to your builds.

On behalf of myself and everyone at Fantasy Cruncher, we’d like to thank you for joining us on the journey that was the 2020-21 NFL Season!!  We hope that it’s been a profitable season of NFL DFS action and that you’ve enjoyed our coverage of NFL DFS action this season!  Have a great Super Bowl Sunday & good luck!!


About Brad

Brad hates the term fantasy sports expert, so instead he is someone who specializes in NFL, NHL and MLB DFS notes and analysis. He had a 68.2% win rate in 2015 NFL cash games to go along with a 83.5% win rate for the 2014 season. For NHL he had a 58.7% win rate in the 2015-16 season for cash games and a 66.2% win rate for the 2014-15 season. You can follow him on Twitter @bradsgotmoxy.

Check Also

Divisional Round – The Cruncher List for Round Two of the NFL Playoffs: Game-By-Game Analysis

The Cruncher List | Divisional Round FanDuel & DraftKings NFL DFS Lineup Advice, Tips & …