The 2021 Farmers Insurance Open: The Primer – PGA DFS Analysis

Featuring in-depth analysis of The 2021 Famers Insurance Open. Daily fantasy golf analysis for this week’s DFS slate to help you build winning cash game and tournament lineups on DraftKings.

Welcome to The Primer column for The Famers Insurance Open! We are here to help you build your DFS lineups for FanDuel, DraftKings or whatever other sites you choose to play on (this article does have a DraftKings bias though).

In case you missed it – you can find my cheat sheet posted for The 2021 Farmers Insurance Open can be found here.

This week, the players will be teeing it up at Torrey Pines, with three of their four rounds taking place on The South Course, which is a beast of a track that checks in at just under 7800 yards.  As a result, SG: OTT will be something worth factoring in as a primary metric, a little bit more than usual – but don’t ignore guys who can make shots as well – so I’ll be using a blend of that along with SG: APP and SG: Total as my primary metrics.  Let’s dive in and have a look at some strong options to consider when building line-ups for this week’s PGA tournament!

Last Week’s Picks

  • Tony Finau – 4th
  • Scottie Scheffler – MC
  • Sepp Straka – MC
  • Cameron Tringale – T56
  • John Huh – T21

The Best of the Best

  • Harris English, $9,800

English has been someone that I’ve touted pretty regularly over the past six months, and even though his price point is a bit higher – I still say that he’s still under-priced vs. how well he’s been playing.  He checked in ranked 7th in SG: Total during the 2019-20 PGA season and sits 13th so far this season.  He’s strong in all phases of the game, and checks in ranked 28th on tour in SG: OTT, meaning he’s got enough length off of the tee in order to compete here.  His last two trips here have been disappointing – but he has played pretty well here at times in the past (2016 & 2017), and given the recent success here of Rory and Rahm, I think he’ll be a little bit lower owned than he should be for this one.  For that it’s worth, I like Rory this week out of the two elite options mentioned.

  • Matthew Wolff, $9,100

Wolff has struggled off the tee so far in the 2020-21 season, but I think it’s just a small sample issue and a couple weeks where he struggled mightily, as he checked in ranked 12th on tour in gaining strokes off the tee in the 2019-20 season.  Unless you think he’s lost it – this should normalize.  He’s an elite ball striker, and there isn’t too much buzz on him from what I’ve been hearing this week.  I think he’s a great fit for Torrey Pines, and while I wouldn’t expect rock bottom ownership levels on him this week – I do think he’ll be lower owned than he should be here.

Others to Consider…

  • Ryan Palmer, $8,400

He’s not the longest off of the tee – but is above average – sitting in 51st on tour so far in the 2020-21 season in SG: OTT. He has a great history of success at this event – and is playing outstanding golf right now, coming into this one with five straight made cuts including 4th place finishes at the Zozo and Sentry.  He won’t be low owned here, but I do think that he has a good chance of being in the thick of things when the weekend rolls around and I like his chances of continuing his strong recent form here.

  • Cameron Champ, $7,900

Far from the safest play in this price range, I do like the upside here with Champ – and think this course is a great fit for him.  He had a strong showing here in 2019, and while putting can be a bit of a circus for him at times to put it mildly, he ranks 25th on tour in SG: OTT and 47th on tour in SG: TTG and 3rd in driving distance.  He struggled last week at The American Express – but before that had put together three strong showings.  I’m willing to give him a mulligan on last week and like his chances of bouncing back and racking up plenty of birdies this week on a course that suits his game.  If you can stomach the missed cut risk, I think hes worth including in a solid % of your line-ups this week.

Do Not Forget About…

  • Wyndham Clark, $6,800

He’s made 5 of the past 6 cuts in events that he’s played in – and much like with Champ, he’s a bomber off the tee who ranks 4th in driving distance, which translates to a solid 27th ranking in SG: OTT.  He’s far from a sure thing, but I do like how his game fits the track at Torrey Pines, and if you are looking for a punt with upside here and can stomach the risk, rostering him can open your line-ups up for some high spends elsewhere.  He’ll lower the floor on whatever line-up that he’s in – but he does have the ability to rack up DKP this week if his game is firing on all cylinders.

If you have any questions at all, you can find me on Twitter @bradsgotmoxy.

About Brad

Brad hates the term fantasy sports expert, so instead he is someone who specializes in NFL, NHL and MLB DFS notes and analysis. He had a 68.2% win rate in 2015 NFL cash games to go along with a 83.5% win rate for the 2014 season. For NHL he had a 58.7% win rate in the 2015-16 season for cash games and a 66.2% win rate for the 2014-15 season. You can follow him on Twitter @bradsgotmoxy.

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