Conference Championships- The Cruncher List for Round Three of the NFL Playoffs: Game-By-Game Analysis

The Cruncher List | Conference Finals Round FanDuel & DraftKings NFL DFS Lineup Advice, Tips & Picks.

Here to help you build the best possible FanDuel & DraftKings NFL Conference Championship line-ups!

Tampa Bay @ Green Bay (-3), Projected Total: 52 points

Tampa Bay – Projected total: 24.5 points

QB Tom Brady DK: $6,100 FD: $7,800
RB Leonard Fournette DK: $5,300 FD: $7,200
RB Ronald Jones DK: $4,600 FD: $5,600
WR Mike Evans DK: $5,800 FD: $6,600
WR Chris Godwin DK: $5,400 FD: $6,800
WR Scotty Miller DK: $3,400 FD: $4,900
TE Rob Gronkowski DK: $3,200 FD: $5,200
TE Cameron Brate DK: $3,000 FD: $5,000

The Bucs come into this game without WR Antonio Brown, who will miss the NFC title game with a knee injury.  I’m expecting CB Jaire Alexander to see a lot of time matched up on WR Mike Evans – and I like his chances of keeping Evans in check from a fantasy standpoint on Sunday.  That should result in some more targets going the way of WR Chris Godwin than usual, and especially without Brown in the line-up, Godwin is an elite option this week at his price on both sites.  Snaps will be up for grabs with the injury to Brown, and one interesting thing to note from last week’s game was that WR Tyler Johnson outsnapped WR Scotty Miller with Brown on the sideline for the vast majority of the second half, 15-8.  Both of them caught a key pass from Brady with Miller putting on a nice little show for a 29 yard strike down the sidelines, while Tyler Johnson caught a back shoulder dart from Brady that got the broadcast team a little too excited.  For me, I prefer Johnson to Miller, largely from the snap pattern that we saw last week – but both are worth keeping in your player pool as a punt with upside at WR.

As for the running game, Leonard Fournette had a very productive fantasy day, putting up 21.7 DKP, largely due to his work in the passing game. RB Ronald Jones played on 29% of snaps a week ago and was the more efficient runner.  I would expect the snap share to be close to equal in this one & to me – I think you have to make a call on what you are forecasting in terms of game flow.  If you like the Bucs to be playing with the lead, Jones is probably the better fantasy play, and if you think that the Packers will be leading, Fournette is probably going to out-produce Jones.  For me – I slightly prefer Jones – and here’s why:

1) I think he’s the better runner and that the game here will be close

2) I think he’ll be the lower owned out of the two backs for the Bucs this week

The Cruncher List

  • WR Chris Godwin
  • Bucs DST

Good Plays

  • RB Ronald Jones
  • WR Tyler Johnson (punt with upside who should be low owned)

Green Bay – Projected total: 27.5 points

QB Aaron Rodgers DK: $6,500 FD: $8,700
RB Aaron Jones DK: $6,500 FD: $8,000
RB Jamaal Williams DK: $4,400 FD: $5,000
WR Davante Adams DK: $8,000 FD: $8,900
WR Allen Lazard DK: $4,200 FD: $5,700
WR Marquez Valdez-Scantling DK: $3,900 FD: $5,500
TE Robert Tonyan DK: $3,600 FD: $5,700

The Packers come into this one as slight favourites, playing at home against a Bucs defence that was one of the only defensive units that was able to slow them down this season.  Rodgers was dismal in that one, not throwing a TD pass and tossing two picks, one of which was brought back to the house.  While I’m not calling for a repeat performance from the Bucs defence in this one – it does worry me enough to keep Rodgers off of The Cruncher List this week, however – I do think he’s worth including in a fair number of your MME builds.

WR Davante Adams had a pretty quiet Week 6 as well – but he’s an elite option in this one.  I think that Carlton Davis will be a tough test for Adams – but I think he’ll be able to handle it with relative ease – and I’m expecting plenty of targets to go his way.  The only downside to rostering Adams in my books is the fact that he will be very popular.

WR Allen Lazard went 4-96-1 a week ago on 8 targets and looked like he was going to be the low-owned piece of the week to break out, until Tre’Quan Smith one-upped him on Sunday night.  If you think that Adams is going to be kept in check – or if you were looking for a 3 man passing stack for the Packers, Lazard is an intriguing option as a value play at WR with MVS being the lower owned pivot off of him.

TE Robert Tonyan is an excellent value play at TE.  If you don’t want to pay up for Kelce, or if you want to use Tonyan in the flex – he’s quite affordable and although you’ll probably need him to score to be happy with rostering him, it’s definitely something that we could see happen this week.

Finally, the running game.  RB Aaron Jones played on 47 of 75 snaps a week ago – and that was after AJ Dillon saw 9 snaps early before leaving the game with an injury (though it looks like he’ll be active today).  Plenty of people have been expecting the Packers to unleash Jones in the playoffs – and while it certainly might happen, there’s also a potential path to another week with a 60/40 split in this one where Jamaal Williams could, in fact – be the better value play here.  Now – even if that does play out, Jones can break a slate with 60% of the snaps – but I think he’s an interesting option to go under-weight the field on this week, perhaps even for an over-weight position on Jamaal Williams (which probably won’t be hard to do as I don’t think he’ll be more than 10-12% owned)…especially because I don’t really love any of the backs on the slate this week.

The Cruncher List

  • WR Davante Adams
  • TE Robert Tonyan

Good Plays

  • QB Aaron Rodgers
  • WR Allen Lazard
  • Packers DST

Buffalo @ Kansas City (-3), Projected Total: 54.5 points

Buffalo – Projected total: 25.75 points

QB Josh Allen DK: $6,900 FD: $8,500
RB Devin Singletary DK: $4,500 FD: $5,800
WR Stefon Diggs DK: $7,300 FD: $8,300
WR Cole Beasley DK: $4,100 FD: $5,700
WR John Brown DK: $4,300 FD: $5,600
WR Gabriel Davis – Q DK: $3,500 FD: $5,000
TE Dawson Knox DK: $2,800 FD: $4,700

The Bills check in as small road dogs this week as they take on the Chiefs in the night-cap of Conference Championship week.  I love this spot for the Bills, who I expect to continue to lean heavily on their pass heavy offence in this one.

QB Josh Allen and WR Stefon Diggs are elite options this week (shocking, I know).  I expect both to be among the highest owned options on the board this week – and for good reason, they have each been among the elite at their respective positions and in a game with a projected total just shy of 55 points, it’s hard to imagine them being quiet in this one.

RB Devin Singletary appears to be in a great spot.  But, that was true a week ago as well as he is seeing almost all the snaps in the backfield for Buffalo since Zack Moss got hurt.  However – as we saw a week ago, Buffalo doesn’t run with any regularity unless it’s Josh Allen…so, you really are depending on his involvement in the passing game.  He hasn’t caught more than 3 passes since Week 5.  Now – I’m not saying to fade him altogether.  It’s a four game slate and he should see more than 80% of the snaps for a team that should put up points.  But, if he’ll be on half the rosters, I think you can make a compelling case to go significantly under-weight that this week.

What to do with Beasley and Brown?  I prefer Brown.  I’m not sure what happened in round 1 for Buffalo when Brown didn’t catch a pass – but Beasley was clearly less than 100% in that one and athough he had the better fantasy day – he clearly was not 100%.  Well, fast forward a week and Beasley puts up a zero while Brown sees 11 targets and catches 8 for 62.  I do think you’ll want to include both in  your builds this week – but to me, I do like this spot better for Brown and he is one of the better value options on the board for me this week.  TE Dawson Knox, finally – is a low owned contrarian option at TE and a nice pivot off of Robert Tonyan as a low spend.

The Cruncher List

  • QB Josh Allen
  • WR Stefon Diggs

Good Plays

  • WR John Brown
  • Bills DST

Kansas City – Projected total: 28.75 points

QB Patrick Mahomes DK: $7,600 FD: $9,000
RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire – Q DK: $5,000 FD: $6,200
RB Darrel Williams DK: $4,800 FD: $6,000
WR Tyreek Hill DK: $7,200 FD: $8,400
WR Sammy Watkins – Q DK: $3,800 FD: $5,400
WR Mecole Hardman DK: $4,000 FD: $5,300
TE Travis Kelce DK: $8,000 FD: $8,600

The Chiefs have the highest projected total on the board, a week after skating by with a narrow win over the Browns after Patrick Mahomes left the game.  TE Travis Kelce is an elite option at TE this week and is worth the spend with pricing being as soft as it is.  I do think he’ll be very popular this week – but I’ll admit, even with the price tag for him and knowing that he will be popular – it’s hard to imagine a scenario short of a Mahomes or Kelce injury that would result in the winning GPP line-ups not including him this weekend.

As for Mahomes – I’m not too worried about his concussion aftermath.  I am, however – a little concerned about the toe injury that he clearly was impacted by before leaving the game after the hit that he took in the second half.  A lot of touts this week will try and tell you they know how Mahomes will play this week.  I’m not one of them.  The range of potential outcomes here is pretty wide.  I do prefer Allen because of the risk, but Mahomes is certainly worth keeping in your pool for a significant number of MME line-ups…I wouldn’t do anything too crazy and leave him off altogether or anything like that.

As for the running game, early reports on Sunday seem to indicate that Clyde Edwards-Helaire is likely to play.  I assume they wouldn’t let him suit up unless he is near 100%, and he’d become as good of a play as anyone on the board for this slate at his price.  If he’s active, I like him more for $5k than I do Singletary for $4,500 for instance…if that helps at all.  I’d keep some line-ups with RB Darrel Williams in them, however – we don’t know exactly how this will play out, and Williams was solid in last week’s win in a 3-down role.  Edit: Some pre-game reports are saying that it’s uncertain what CEH’s role will be running the ball today.  As a result, at this point in time, I probably prefer Williams.

Tyreek Hill matches up against Tre’Davious White and I have a feeling he’ll be the lowest owned out of the trio that includes him, Adams and Diggs.  Given that he arguably has the highest ceiling of any WR in the game – that makes for an interesting game theory option this week.  In single entry, I wouldn’t be surprised if he was more than 15-20% lower owned than either of the other two elite WR’s on the slate…but in MME formats, I expect the trio to all be on similar number of rosters (within ~10% or so).  As for the other WR’s, it looks like Sammy Watkins is trending towards playing (Edit: Reports early on Sunday indicate that Watkins is unlikely to play)  As a result, Hardman and Demarcus Robinson are worth keeping in your player pool, with Hardman being the better option out of the two….I wouldn’t go nuts with exposure to either of them – but they certainly could be sprinkled in.

The Cruncher List

  • TE Travis Kelce

Good Plays

  • QB Patrick Mahomes
  • WR Demarcus……just kidding
  • WR Tyreek Hill
  • WR Mecole Hardman

We hope you enjoy the Conference Championships!  Thank you for visiting the article over the course of the season, and here’s to hoping that you’re able to end the 2020-21 NFL season with a big week!

About Brad

Brad hates the term fantasy sports expert, so instead he is someone who specializes in NFL, NHL and MLB DFS notes and analysis. He had a 68.2% win rate in 2015 NFL cash games to go along with a 83.5% win rate for the 2014 season. For NHL he had a 58.7% win rate in the 2015-16 season for cash games and a 66.2% win rate for the 2014-15 season. You can follow him on Twitter @bradsgotmoxy.

Check Also

Divisional Round – The Cruncher List for Round Two of the NFL Playoffs: Game-By-Game Analysis

The Cruncher List | Divisional Round FanDuel & DraftKings NFL DFS Lineup Advice, Tips & …