The 2020 American Express: The Primer – PGA DFS Analysis

Featuring in-depth analysis of The 2020 American Express. Daily fantasy golf analysis for this week’s DFS slate to help you build winning cash game and tournament lineups on DraftKings.

Welcome to The Primer column for The American Express 2020! We are here to help you build your DFS lineups for FanDuel, DraftKings or whatever other sites you choose to play on (this article does have a DraftKings bias though).

In case you missed it – you can find my cheat sheet posted for The 2020 American Express can be found here.

This week, the players will be teeing it up at The Stadium Course at PGA West.  It checks in at 7300 yards and is a Par 72 that features four Par 5’s, and historically – we’ve seen the winner get south of 20 under in this one so you’ll want to make sure that you’re targeting players that can score here as going out and shooting four 68-69’s isn’t likely going to get it done here.  As is generally the case, I’ll be looking for golfers that have the ability to gain strokes on APP and Total while factoring in recent form and a bit of course history as a tiebreaker.  Let’s have a look at some of my favourite options on the board this week!

The Best of the Best

  • Tony Finau, $10,500

Finau is probably a little overpriced compared to his odds to win the tournament here – but I think that will give him a little bit of a break in terms of his popularity with players this week.  His game is a great fit for The Stadium Course at PGA West – and quite frankly for most courses as he is above average in all facets of the game.  While his rankings are a tick lower than they were for the 2019-20 PGA season so far in 2020-21, I think it’s only a matter of time before he gets things going & in a weaker field event, I like his chances of being in the thick of things on the leaderboard on Sunday this week.

  • Scottie Scheffler, $9,500

Scheffler is another player that I feel will start to play better soon.  For him ,the missing component has been his approaches, something that was one of his best metrics in the 2019-20 season.  The sample size here is small on the 2020-21 season, and I am not too worried about his extremely low ranking here…afterall, he has still cracked the top 20 in each of his last two tournaments even with his lacklustre approach game.  The course here is a good fit for him and he played well here with a 3rd place finish.  I like his chances of piecing together four strong rounds and one fo the only downsides to rostering him here is the fact that he is likely going to be among the highest owned golfers for this week’s event.

Others to Consider…

  • Sepp Straka, $7,400

A boom/bust option – Straka has been a great ball striker so far this season, ranking 19th on tour in SG: Approach, one of the best marks for the field this week.  He’s played well here in the past, which includes a 4th place finish a week ago and comes into this one having made six straight cuts.  I think the course is a good fit for him and with how good he’s been playing lately, he’s a strong option to work into your builds this week.

  • Cameron Tringale, $7,400

Sure – most of his ranking of 29th in SG: Total has been a function of his putting – but he did rank 8th on tour last season in SG: Approach and he has been above average with that metric so far this season.  To me – he’s just too cheap.  He’s a better player than most of the options priced around him and is one of the better options available on the board.  Sure – his course history is brutal here, but I feel like if he had a great deal of success here, he wouldn’t be sub $7,500 either.  There’s risk – and it’s a longshot, but I like the upside here…and his brutal course history will help to keep his ownership levels low this week.

Do Not Forget About…

  • John Huh, $7,200

Huh missed most of the 2020 season with an injury, and every since his return – he has looked like a completely different golfer.  He has made four straight cuts, and while he has yet to crack the top 10 in any of those tournaments – if he keeps striking the ball like he has been, it is only a matter of time.  The sample size is small for him, but so far in the 2020-21 PGA Tour season, he ranks 29th in SG: APP, 34th in SG: Total and 27th in Birdie Average.  For this price, I think he’s an excellent value play this week and I like his chances of putting together four strong rounds this weekend.

If you have any questions at all, you can find me on Twitter @bradsgotmoxy.

About Brad

Brad hates the term fantasy sports expert, so instead he is someone who specializes in NFL, NHL and MLB DFS notes and analysis. He had a 68.2% win rate in 2015 NFL cash games to go along with a 83.5% win rate for the 2014 season. For NHL he had a 58.7% win rate in the 2015-16 season for cash games and a 66.2% win rate for the 2014-15 season. You can follow him on Twitter @bradsgotmoxy.

Check Also

2021 Genesis Open: DraftKings PGA DFS Daily Cheat Sheet

DraftKings PGA DFS GPP Cheat Sheet for The 2021 Genesis Open.  Featuring top plays, high …