Welcome to the NBA Rundown for DraftKings contests on Tuesday, January 12, 2021.
We have a nice 6 game slate on DraftKings today (Jan 12, 2021).
We’re here to break down the slate with some of our top plays at each key position.
Tackling the Sixers/Heat
Before we get into the details of each and every position here, let’s first take a closer look at the Philly and Miami situations here.
Both teams are incredibly short-handed once again. The funny is that they play against each other here to more or less “even” out the disadvantage.
Ben Simmons is expected out once again, which should keep guys like Maxey, Mathias and Joe in particular in higher minute spots. However, Joel Embiid’s presence will continue to have a massive impact. The 46% usage rate that he owned last night against ATL (23 minutes) is a good leading indicator.
Tyrese Maxey has seen a noteworthy price jump of late, and rightfully so. He followed up a 39 point night over the weekend to put up a 15-6-4 line in 31 minutes last night. He remains a great target given minutes are coming his way once again.
Dakota Mathias and Isaiah Joe remain strong values, with Mathias owning the $500 advantage. He’s not a high usage guy but for under $4K with the potential for another 35+ minute night – there’s easy 6+ ROI upside.
For Miami, we’re looking at massive usage and minutes from Tyler Herro here, and as long as Kelly Olynyk can go, he remains an elite target, too. Precious Achiuwa is staring at a big opportunity with Bam Adebayo out as well, and I wouldn’t overlook Max Strus who was great in the preseason and could see surprising minutes/usage (20/20% kind of thing) off the bench. Herro is the easiest play to get excited about. We saw what can happen with him over the weekend with a 37 minute, 28.6% usage rate night (31-9-2) – and that could be a reasonable baseline here. Duncan Robinson at $4,800 is in play, but he’s a little too one-dimensional for me where I think his ceiling is probably around a 5-5.5 ROI in a best case scenario.
In this one overall, I think you really need to prioritize at least 2 or 3 pieces of exposure. I love Embiid with the upside for 45%+ usage and 32-35 minutes if this can stay close. Maxey is solid for GPPs as well, and Mathias is a great value. Herro is a near must-play, and I’d recommend sprinkling in some Strus/Achiuwa/Joe for GPP purposes.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($8,000) – He’s been great all year for the Thunder, but even more so of late with 3 straight games of at least 50 DKP to his name. He’s scoring at an elite clip, dishing out the ball really nicely as well, and is chipping in on the glass and with hustle stats beautifully, too. With a ~35 minute expectation and high-20s minutes output against the Spurs here who rank below average vs Gs, look for another big night.
Caris LeVert ($7,600) – The absence of Kyrie Irving has traditionally led to a nice boost in minutes and usage for LeVert like we saw last time out. However, we saw Kevin Durant soak up a hefty amount of the responsibility – so it’s not entirely going to funnel to LeVert like it did when both of the studs were off the floor. Regardless, 35 minutes, 25% usage and a shot at a 25-5-5 kind of line are within reach here in a good matchup with Kyrie out once again. For the price and eligibility, he’s a fine option for GPPs.
Lonnie Walker IV ($5,400) – DeMar DeRozan is expected out once again here, and we don’t have to look back very far to see the kind of impact that can have on Walker. He played 30 minutes with a 34.3% usage rate on the weekend with DD out, scoring 39.25 points in that one. A big portion of the responsibility will be shared with Aldridge as well, but for an under-priced SG/SF with 30 minutes and 25-30% usage as the outlook here vs OKC – I’m heaving up exposure.
LeVert and Lonnie Walker are the top 2 SFs that I like on the day here (covered elsewhere).
Power Forward / Center
Kevin Durant ($9,400) – He’s the one stud that you really need to pay up for today. With Kyrie off the floor, he had 35.5% usage in his last game, finishing with nearly 60 DKP and playing nearly 40 minutes. Expecting a much different level of responsibility would be silly here, as there’s a tremendous ceiling in a game that will require him to carry the load (along with LeVert) to give his team a shot in a tough matchup. I’d put his floor (true, true floor) at 45 points here and there’s a very good shot at a 60+ DKP night. For under $10K, that’s fantastic.
LaMarcus Aldridge ($6,300) – We saw more of a vintage Aldridge last time out thanks to a heavier lift required with DeRozan out. That should be the same kind of deal once again with something like a 20-10-3-1-1 kind of line as the output we can expect tonight. He played 37 minutes with 27.6% usage on the weekend, and with White/DeRozan off the floor, he is averaging 30% usage. Look for 35+ points.
Trey Lyles ($3,300) – The other Spur who is going to continue benefiting thanks to his versatility is Lyles. He saw a massive 35 minute output against the Wolves to help guard against their stud big man, but just a 6.1% usage rate shows the kind of role he’s going to have. He just isn’t a dominant offensive player by any means. In the Spurs’ offense, he will take the open jumpers, finish around the glass and help with defensive rebounds. But for $3,300 with 30+ minutes – he still has every shot to finish with a 6+ ROI night as a PF/C punt play.