Welcome to the NBA Rundown for DraftKings contests on Monday, January 11, 2021.
We have a nice 8 game slate on DraftKings today (Jan 11, 2021).
We’re here to break down the slate with some of our top plays at each key position.
Tackling the Sixers
Before we get into the details of each and every position here, let’s first take a closer look at Philly’s situation here.
Ben Simmons is expected out once again, which should keep guys like Maxey, Mathias and Joe in particular in higher minute spots. However, Joel Embiid is expected to return which will undoubtedly have an impact on Reed’s output.
As of this moment, it also looks like Shake Milton, Seth Curry, Tobias Harris, Matisse Thybulle and Vincent Poirier are also going to be sidelined once again. So, I would lean most heavily on Maxey, Mathias and Joe here who are all under the $4,700 mark.
Maxey led the offense on Saturday against the Nuggets with 44 minutes and a 30.9% usage rate on the way to a 39-7-6-2 line. Although his usage will likely drop back to around 20%, he’s still very much worth using. Mathias and Joe should play around 30 minutes apiece (maybe more) and sport mid-teens usage rates which can easily pay off for their price points.
The play that we need to really talk about though is Embiid, who could threaten for a 40% usage rate in this one. If he returns, it could be a massive night for The Process.
Luka Doncic ($11,300) – The league’s #1 usage rate guy here (37.3%) and his dominant 46.6% assist share take on the Pelicans here in a fairly neutral matchup – but one where he should get close to 40 minutes and absolutely have a field day. He has at least 57 DKP in 4 straight games and although the price has climbed, he remains an elite play in all formats.
De’Anthony Melton ($3,800) – The last 2 games are giving Melton more momentum, with 2.75 and 25.75 DKP on 21.5 minutes per game in that span. The usage rate is also what I like to see (north of 20% in 3 straight), and as long as Ja Morant is sidelined he’s going to have a nice bench role.
Raul Neto ($4,600) – With Russell Westbrook expected out tonight, Neto gets another opportunity to slot into the starting lineup against the Suns. He generally has a lower ceiling, but just in case he manages to have a game like he did on Dec 27 vs ORL with 32 minutes of 24.6% usage rate action, he’s worthy of some player pool love. Just know the floor is incredibly low given his typically low offensive output.
Victor Oladipo ($6,900) – His underlying metrics continue to improve as the season progresses and he gets back to full health, and he’s been a model of DFS consistency when he’s played this year. With 31.5 DKP or more in each game this year, and at least a 4.5x ROI in his 8 GP, the elite matchup vs SAC which is the most generous to opposing SG on the slate (13% more FPPG than league average) lines up beautifully for him to have a big game.
Bradley Beal ($9,900) – No Westbrook is going to thrust Beal into the spotlight to carry the load once again, as long as he’s healthy. With Westbrook off the floor this year, he’s sporting a 39.4% usage rate and is averaging over 56 DKP per 36 minutes. He could easily surpass that minute and fantasy point mark here.
Cameron Johnson ($4,200) – Loving the consistency off the bench for Johnson in his sophomore season. He has at least 23 MPG in 3 straight and is keeping pace with just about 1 FPPM in that time with usage into the low 20s more often than not. WAS struggles against G/Fs and with the second unit, he should do some serious damage while threatening for a 6+ ROI.
Deni Avdija ($4,300) – The rookie has been frustrating to figure out early on, but with Westbrook (and Beal) out on Saturday, he finished with 40.25 DKP in 32 minutes of action. He probably gets around 25-27 minutes here with Westbrook out again, but a lower teens usage rate most games (at least right now) limits the ceiling.
Chris Boucher ($6,000) – He followed up a 49 DKP outing against SAC with a 37.5 DKP game against the Warriors last night. He’s a monster defensively (blocks in each of his last 6 and 9 total in his last 2 games), and seems to be settling into a 24-29 minute role for the Raptors. The price is far too low for PF/C eligibility and this kind of ceiling, even in a game where POR stands up well to opposing PF.
Julius Randle ($9,600) – Randle is in an amazing spot here to continue his damage against the opposition, but is playing his second game in as many nights. The only other time that happened this year, he dropped 61 DKP in37 minutes of near 30% usage against the Bucks after 35 minutes the night before. So, I am not really worried. CHA is generous to opposing bigs and is going to have a ton of trouble containing him. Get him active here despite the hefty price tag. He should make you proud.
Moritz Wagner ($3,600) – With Thomas Bryant out, Wagner at $3,600 makes an elite value target on the slate. He played 20 minutes with a 17.9% usage rate against the Heat on Saturday, and we don’t have to look too far back into the time tunnel to see how productive he was with the starting unit last season when Bryant was off the floor. As a starter, he averaged 9.8 points, 8.2 rebounds and 1.2 assists with over 1.0 S+B in 23.8 MPG. You’ll be thrilled with that kind of line for $3,600.
Andre Drummond ($9,200) – The other way you can go at C here if not paying down for Wagner (or flexing one of them) is getting Drummond active. Frankly, this is a hard spot to pass him up. MEM really struggles against opposing bigs, and it was just 2 games ago that the CLE big man had a 22-15 line. What I’m hopeful here is that we see some more defensive stats as he hasn’t had multiple blocks in 6 straight games, and we’ll need more than just points and boards to pay off a $9,200 price tag. He’ll have every opportunity to do that here though, so don’t be afraid to keep him active in your player pool(s) even with guys like Boucher, Randle, and Wagner around at the same position.