The Cruncher List | Wildcard Sunday FanDuel & DraftKings NFL DFS Lineup Advice, Tips & Picks.
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Baltimore (-3) @ Tennessee, Projected Total: 54.5 points
Baltimore – Projected total: 28.75 points
|QB Lamar Jackson||DK: $7,800||FD: $9,300|
|RB JK Dobbins||DK: $6,600||FD: $6,800|
|RB Gus Edwards||DK: $4,400||FD: $5,700|
|WR Marquise Brown||DK: $5,400||FD: $6,300|
|WR Miles Boykin||DK: $3,400||FD: $5,000|
|TE Mark Andrews||DK: $5,200||FD: $7,000|
As was the case with the 1pm game on Saturday, I am expecting the AFC 1pm contest to be the most popular in terms of ownership levels on Sunday’s slate as well, led by Baltimore – who are tied for the highest projected total on the board with teh Saints. The Ravens draw a match-up against a Titans defence that has been dismal at preventing fantasy production from just about any position all season long….which I’ll admit, surprised me for a few too many weeks as the season rolled along.
QB Lamar Jackson is an elite option if you pay up at QB on Sunday. After a slow start compared to his 2019 campaign, Jackson and the Ravens have been rounding into form down the stretch for their playoff push & anytime you can roster Jackson when he is expected to have double digit carries, there is plenty of intrigue. He’ll be the highest owned QB for the slate, but I think he’s worth an over-weight position in MME formats.
WR Marquise Brown and TE Mark Andrews are his two main (and at times, only) weapons through the air and both have been producing at a healthy clip. Brown has 6 TD’s over the past 6 games, and Andrews has been as good as any TE in the league not named Kelce or Waller over his past six games (though Week 17 was a dud). If you like some of the value plays on the board, it’s really hard not to go heavy with Andrews.
As for the ground game, JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards have been pretty close in terms of touches over the past 5-6 games and both have been productive. Dobbins had a massive Week 17, scoring twice on 13 touches – but Edwards did have 13 touches in that contest himself. I like the game theory approach to mixing in some exposure to Edwards, who also frees up some salary relief when compared to Dobbins, and Edwards will also probably be lower owned.
The Cruncher List
- QB Lamar Jackson
- RB JK Dobbins
- WR Marquise Brown
- TE Mark Andrews (DK)
- TE Mark Andrews (FD)
Tennessee – Projected total: 25.75 points
|QB Ryan Tannehill||DK: $6,600||FD: $8,200|
|RB Derrick Henry||DK: $9,200||FD: $10,200|
|WR AJ Brown||DK: $7,000||FD: $8,400|
|WR Corey Davis||DK: $4,800||FD: $6,400|
|TE Jonnu Smith||DK: $3,200||FD: $5,200|
The Titans, unlike the Ravens – have to go up against a pretty stout defence. However, I still think they’ll put up points…Afterall, they have been one of the best offences in the league all season long. The focal point here is RB Derrick Henry, who not only cleared the 2,000 yard mark on the ground, but also opens things up for the passing game – making them a very interesting option on this 3-game slate. It goes without saying, but even at the high price against a stout defence, Henry is an elite option at his price point.
As for the passing game, Tannehill makes for an interesting game theory pivot off of Jackson in a game stack, and you could combine him with Henry and one or two of the receiving options. I don’t see too much point of using him on his own, though he’s a better runner than many give him credit for. He’s not an elite option at the position for me on this slate, but he’s a solid play worth keeping in your player pool.
WR AJ Brown and Corey Davis are both elite options for me at the WR position at their respective price points. Davis has had back to back quiet weeks, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he sees a couple more looks in this one with the Ravens stout defence likely to be focused on AJ Brown, who comes into this one fresh off of a 10-151-1 line in Week 17. If I had to pick just one of them, Davis would be my pick at his price discount, especially on DraftKings where he checks in less than $5k.
Finally, Jonnu Smith is in play as a punt with upside on DK. He was quiet in Week 17, but had seen 12 targets over the prior two games, and for $3,200 – you could do much, much worse.
The Cruncher List
- RB Derrick Henry
- WR AJ Brown (DK)
- WR Corey Davis
- QB Ryan Tannehill
- WR AJ Brown (FD)
- TE Jonnu Smith
Chicago @ New Orleans (-10), Projected Total: 47.5 points
Chicago – Projected total: 18.75 points
|QB Mitch Trubisky||DK: $5,300||FD: $6,900|
|RB David Montgomery||DK: $6,900||FD: $8,400|
|WR Allen Robinson||DK: $6,500||FD: $7,200|
|WR Anthony Miller||DK: $3,300||FD: $4,700|
|TE Cole Kmet||DK: $3,000||FD: $5,300|
The Bears check in this week with the lowest projected total on the board, and with that, they have some options with significant price decreases, especially on DraftKings, making for some tough decisions. On one hand, the spot for them isn’t good. The Saints have been one of the best defences in the league this season and the Bears are far from an offensive juggernaut to begin with. On the other hand, and why I have intrigue here is due to the fact that they have limited weapons at both RB and WR – and the opportunities appear to be pretty easy to predict.
WR Allen Robinson ranked 3rd in the league with 151 targets, and with Darnell Mooney out this week in the #2 spot – it’s hard to recommend Robinson as anything other than an elite play in this one. He’s a high floor option this week who you just have to hope that Trubisky will be able to get him the ball consistently if you end up rostering him.
RB David Montgomery has been an elite back over the second half of the season and should be in line for heavy usage yet again this week. The Saints run defence has been outstanding outside of one game against Miles Sanders and the Eagles – and due to the match-up, personally – I do prefer other backs on this slate. It’s interesting, we only have six teams to choose from – but RB is stacked today. For me, he misses the cut for The Cruncher List, but I wouldn’t argue too much with anyone that loved him at his price on DK.
Finally – WR Anthony Miller and TE Cole Kmet are both elite punts with upside. Kmet comes into this one regularly seeing 5+ targets, with 30 over the past 5 weeks and Miller should see more targets flow his way with Darnell Mooney ruled out. I think that both of them are elite options on DK this week as punts with upside.
The Cruncher List
- WR Allen Robinson
- WR Anthony Miller (DK)
- TE Cole Kmet (DK)
- RB David Montgomery
- WR Anthony Miller (FD)
- TE Cole Kmet (FD)
- Bears DST
New Orleans – Projected total: 28.75 points
|QB Drew Brees||DK: $5,700||FD: $7,800|
|RB Alvin Kamara||DK: $8,500||FD: $9,000|
|WR Michael Thomas||DK: $6,300||FD: $6,800|
|WR Emmanuel Sanders||DK: $5,000||FD: $6,200|
|TE Jared Cook||DK: $4,600||FD: $5,900|
The Saints are right there with the Ravens for the highest projected total on the slate, a tad short of 30 points coming into this one. I’ll be honest, if forced to pick, I do prefer Baltimore. The Bears defence is far from a slouch and if I had to guess, I would think that they’ll struggle to clear 30 points in this one….but, there’s some great options here.
RB Alvin Kamara is set to return after missing Week 17 with Covid. He should be in line for heavy usage in this one nd is an elite option who continues to be the focal point of the offence for the Saints and is available for a little less than it would cost to roster Derrick Henry on the high-end of things spend wise. For what it’s worth, it’s pretty easy to build a solid roster with both of them in your line-ups, especially if you spend down at TE and use a deep value WR in one of your slots.
As for the passing game, the price point on WR Michael Thomas is awfully tempting. He did miss the past three games and looks poised to return for this one, but the range of outcomes here is pretty wide. He did look quite strong (though wasn’t at 2019 Michael Thomas levels) in 3 of his past 4 games before re-injuring himself. I suspect one of two things will happen here. He will either be close to 100% and approach 20DKP in this one, or he will be severely limited and a bust. My gut tells me it will be the former, making him an elite option today. If you think he’ll be out there as primarily a decoy – that would open up an opportunity to pivot to WR Emmanuel Sanders, who I expect to have much lower ownership levels than Thomas. I love the game theory angle here with Sanders and would not be shocked one bit to see him out-pace Thomas, though if I had to pick just one – I’d still go with Thomas.
The Cruncher List
- RB Alvin Kamara
- WR Michael Thomas
- QB Drew Brees’
- WR Emmanuel Sanders
- TE Jared Cook
- Saints DST
Cleveland @ Pittsburgh (-6), Projected Total: 47.5 points
Cleveland – Projected total: 20.75 points
|QB Baker Mayfield||DK: $5,400||FD: $6,700|
|RB Nick Chubb||DK: $6,700||FD: $7,700|
|RB Kareem Hunt||DK: $4,800||FD: $5,900|
|WR Jarvis Landry||DK: $5,800||FD: $6,600|
|WR Rashard Higgins||DK: $4,100||FD: $5,500|
|TE Austin Hooper||DK: $3,900||FD: $5,400|
The total here is low for Cleveland, who put up 24 points last week in a must win game against this very same Steelers team who rested a few of the key cogs in their defence in a 24-22 win. To me, this total seems fair. The Steelers have an elite defence, and in a must win game a week ago – the Browns definitely weren’t holding much, if anything at all back in their playcalling against Pittsburgh. So – what do we do with them. I don’t have much interest. I will say this – I do expect the Browns to be low owned, arguably the lowest owned on the slate in terms of the key members of their offence, so if you do like this week’s spot for them more than the field, it should be pretty easy to get an over-weight position. For me, however – I don’t have much interest here and I think you can make a strong case for a fade altogether. I do think that TE Austin Hooper is an elite play, however at TE. He comes into this one with three straight strong outings and should continue to get significant looks from Baker in the passing game.
The Cruncher List
- TE Austin Hooper
- RB Nick Chubb
- WR Jarvis Landry
- WR Rashard Higgins
- Browns DST
Pittsburgh – Projected total: 26.75 points
|QB Ben Roetlisberger||DK: $6,100||FD: $7,500|
|RB James Conner||DK: $5,000||FD: $6,200|
|WR Diontae Johnson||DK: $6,200||FD: $7,000|
|WR Chase Claypool||DK: $5,200||FD: $6,100|
|WR Juju Smith-Schuster||DK: $5,500||FD: $6,500|
|TE Eric Ebron||DK: $3,700||FD: $5,500|
The Steelers have a healthy projected total in this one and also have no options that really break the bank from a salary standpoint. I think that most people will have one, if not a couple of Steelers in their line-ups this week.
What to do with the Pittsburgh WR’s is going to be a key decision for the slate. You can make a case for any of the three, but for me – my order of preference would be Johnson, Claypool and then Smith-Schuster.
WR Diontae Johnson shook off the yips and looked strong down the stretch. How he continued to see targets after that Buffalo game is beyond me, but at 144 targets on the season – his volume was elite and should continue to be in the playoffs. He’s priced very reasonably on both sites and my favourite option from the Steelers this week, putting him firmly on The Cruncher List. WR Chase Claypool shook off a 5 game scoring drought, finding the endzone and clearing the century mark in Week 17’s win. I’m expecting him to be leaned on heavily for the Steelers in the playoffs. He’s too physically talented to not be a key part of their passing attack, and I think he’s an elite option this week as well with his price on both sites. That leaves Juju and Ebron as options that are worth keeping in your player pools at their respective positions, though I do prefer other options on the board. WR James Washington is a dart-throw that could be a contrarian option if he can wiggle free deep for MME formats.
RB James Conner is quite attractively priced, though he has struggled mightily on the ground for most of the 2020 season. The appeal here for me with Conner is in the passing game. He has caught 5 balls in each of the past two weeks, and I actually think he is priced low enough to me that I like (but don’t love) this spot for him. He’s one of the better value plays on the board on DK this week at the position.
The Cruncher List
- RB James Conner
- WR Diontae Johnson
- WR Chase Claypool
- QB Ben Roethlisberger
- WR Juju Smith-Schuster
- Steelers DST
Good luck on Sunday & we will be back with The Cruncher List for the Divisional Round next weekend!