DFS Analysis for Thompson vs Neal at the UFC’s Apex for Fanduel Contests (12/19/20)
The UFC will host more MMA action at their Apex facility in Las Vegas. Here are two of my favorite value plays for fighters with below average salaries in DFS contests on Fanduel on Saturday.
SIJARA EUBANKS (FD $14) – Eubanks is priced one dollar below average yet is a favorite over Pannie Kianzad on Saturday. She is just 4-3 in the UFC, but when in victories she is averaging a very solid 86.75 FPPF. Coming off of a loss, her salary is much lower than expected and she is priced to sell. As the betting favorite, she is 3-1. Additionally, as she has never been finished in her 11 fight career, she has a solid floor even if her ceiling isn’t as high as one would hope.
Caveman’s advice: Eubanks is a solid cash play on Saturday. She averages well in victory and as the favorite this bodes well. Her ceiling makes me hesitant to roster her in GPP contests, but with her low salary, she makes one of the best cash plays on the card. Given that her salary is below average, she should get consideration for a small number of lineups in 150-max contests as well.
(At the time of this writing, Sijara Eubanks is -159 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 63.01 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
ALEX MORONO (FD $10) – The oddsmakers have shown no love for Morono against Anthony Pettis on Saturday. This is a head scratcher to me as Morono is 4-1 over his last five fights. Pettis is just 2-3 over his last five. Pettis is a much more familiar name and this is the only reason he is such a significant favorite in this fight. Over the last six years, however, Pettis has just five wins to his eight losses. These fighters are trending in opposite directions and Morono figures to make this fight a very competitive one despite his super low salary.
Caveman’s advice: Morono is 7-3 with one no contest in the UFC with two first round finishes over that span. He is clearly fighting very well at the UFC level and should make this fight very interesting. He has been far more successful than Pettis of late, and won’t be in over his head. Given his ultra low salary on Fanduel, he is a great cash play and with a proven ability to score finishes at this level, he should get some GPP lineups as well. He is the underdog and should be used cautiously, but at his salary the risk is low.
(At the time of this writing, Alex Morono is +180 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 44.68 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
That’s all for this week. Good luck with your lineups!