MMA on DraftKings – UFC Fight Night 183: Thompson vs Neal

DFS Analysis for Thompson vs Neal in Las Vegas on DraftKings (12/19/20)


The UFC is back with more fight action from Las Vegas. Here are two of my favorite value plays for fighters with below average salaries in DFS contests on DraftKings on Saturday.

KHAOS WILLIAMS (DK $7,900) – Williams is a very slight underdog in his matchup against Michel Pereira and has been cast as the underdog in both of his UFC fights to date. He won both of those fights in the first half minute of round one. He has won eight straight fights leading up to Saturday and has five first round finishes during that span. Pereira is 2-2 inside the octagon and will be looking to put together consecutive wins for the first time since joining the UFC. This fight is not likely to go the distance and is currently a -260 favorite to end before reaching a decision.

Caveman’s advice: Williams has been underestimated by the betting public and is once again the underdog in this fight. At a below average salary on DraftKings, he is a proven finisher at the UFC level and one who wins as an underdog. Both fighters in this one go for the kill and this fight is very likely to score a conclusion bonus for the winner. As slight underdog with finishing skills, Williams is a great GPP play at a low salary. Give him lots of love in multi-entry contests on DraftKings.

(At the time of this writing, Khaos Williams is -104 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 56.65 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

GILLIAN ROBERTSON (DK $8,000) – Robertson is 6-2 in the UFC and her only loss over her last five fights was to top flyweight Maycee Barber. She is coming off back to back wins and has five finishes in her eight visits to the octagon. She is a legitimate submission specialist who will face Taila Santos who is primarily a striker with 10 wins by KO/TKO, 2 wins by submission and 4 wins by decision. Despite her finishing history prior to joining the UFC, she is just 1-1 since joining and has yet to finish an opponent in the octagon. She should have a much harder time finishing Robertson who is a threat to take her down where she has submissions of some of the UFC’s best flyweights. Robertson is currently a small favorite in this fight.

Caveman’s advice: I like Robertson to pull off an upset here. Her striking continues to improve and if she is able to take this fight to the ground, Santos is in real trouble. She has a below average salary and a high finishing rate. For this reason, I like Robertson in GPP contests where she is not only a threat to finish Santos, but her price tag will make room to spend on some of the more expensive fighters in DFS contests on DraftKings. She is worthy of good exposure in all multi-entry contests on Saturday. As the favorite, she is also worth consideration in cash lineups as well.

(At the time of this writing, Gillian Robertson is -115 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 59.44 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

That’s all for this week. Good luck with your lineups!

About Rob

Since getting out of the casino business, Rob has been playing DFS regularly with a focus on MMA and the NFL. He now lives in Denver, CO.

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