Fight Study – December 12, 2020
The UFC has put together several great fights for this event and the matchup between Rafael Fiziev and Renato Moicano is no exception. These lightweights are both coming off of wins and will be looking to extend their winning ways on Saturday. Fiziev is the small favorite and will carry the higher price tag in DFS contests. He is priced at $8,400 on DraftKings and Moicano is available for $7,800. On Fanduel they are salaried at $16 and $14 respectively. This fight is scheduled for three rounds of MMA action and current odds make it a small -125 favorite to end before reaching the judges’ scorecards.
Fiziev has a professional record of 8-1 as an MMA fighter but he also has a long history of fights as a muay Thai fighter. He is strong and quick and with his background he excels with his knees and low kicks. In his 8 wins to date, he has 5 wins by KO/TKO, 1 win by submission and 2 wins by decision. Both of his decision wins came at the UFC level, and Fiziev has yet to finish an opponent inside the octagon. Prior to joining the UFC, however, Fiziev began his MMA career with five consecutive first round finishes. He will give up three inches in height to Moicano on Saturday as well as a half inch in reach. He is able to close distances very quickly, however, and he always finds a way to land against taller fighters. His only loss came in his UFC debut against Magomed Mustafaev who is just one inch taller than Fiziev.
Moicano is coming off of a submission win over Damir Hadzovic that he secured just 44 seconds into the first round. He is 14-3 overall with 7 wins by submission and 7 wins by decision. He has only lost to the best lightweights in the division. To date his three losses have come from Brian Ortega, Jose Aldo and The Korean Zombie, Chan Sung Jung. He is as game as they come and will be looking to continue his winning ways on Saturday. To do so, he will need to force his opponent to grapple as he has never won by KO/TKO in his career. If he is able to take his opponent’s back, however, he is lethal with all 7 of his submission wins coming by rear-naked choke. If he can take Fiziev to the ground with time to work, Moicano is a real threat to finish his opponent and score the upset on Saturday.
In a strictly kickboxing contest, Moicano can’t hold his own against Fiziev. Therefore this fight will largely be determined by Moicano’s ability to take this fight to the ground. Fiziev is a highly skilled muay Thai champion who performs well on his feet and in the clinch. This means that Moicano will likely need to shoot for takedowns to successfully change levels in this fight. This will be a difficult task considering both Fiziev’s speed and his ability to place knees. Moicano may be able to pull guard from the clinch, but he will be at a risk going to his back against Fiziev who is the much stronger fighter. He may be forced to accept this as his chances in a stand-up fight are very small.
Moicano has the more difficult path to victory and is the underdog for good reason here. He is fully capable of finishing his opponent if he can take this fight to the mat, but his chances of getting there are not high. For this reason, I prefer Fiziev in DFS contests and feel his knockout potential is slightly better than Moicano’s submission potential. In a decision, Fiziev also has the edge in my opinion. Considering all of this, I like Fiziev in cash lineups, given that his salary is just slightly above the average on both platforms. In GPP contests, Moicano is worthy of a limited number on lineups, but Fiziev should get the higher exposure of the two. I don’t believe a high score should be counted on in this fight, however, and neither fighter will get heavy exposure for my money in these contests.
For more Fight Study, be sure to keep your eye on FantasyCruncher.com leading up to UFC 256 on December 12.
UFC 256: FIGHT #7, Fiziev vs Moicano
For Fight Study on UFC 256: FIGHT #6, Pineda vs Swanson, click HERE.
For Fight Study on UFC 256: FIGHT #8, Quarantillo vs Tucker, click HERE.