Fight Study – December 12, 2020
UFC 256 is showcasing some of the best matchups of 2020 including a featherweight bout between Daniel Pineda and longtime UFC veteran, Cub Swanson. Both fighters won in their last trip to the octagon. Pineda is the favorite with the oddsmakers in this fight and he will carry the higher salary of the two fighters. He is available for $8,300 on DraftKings and for $16 on Fanduel. As the underdog, Swanson is more affordable on both platforms and can be rostered for $7,900 and $12 respectively. This fight has been scheduled for three rounds of action, but the oddsmaker have made it a small favorite to finish inside the distance at -140 to conclude prior to the final bell.
Pineda made his return to the UFC in August of this year after going 3-4 in his initial foray into the promotion from 2012-2014. Since then he has gone 9-2 with two no contest rulings (after it failing a drug test in late 2019), including 7 first round finishes and a second round finish of Herbert Burns in his first UFC fight in over six years. For his entire career, Pineda has a record of 27-13 and 2 no contest decisions with 9 wins by KO/TKO and 18 wins by submission. All 27 of his victories have come inside the distance. In fact, in his 42 career fights Pineda has gone the distance just five times. He will look to score his 28th finish on Saturday when he matches up against Cub Swanson.
Swanson also has a long fight career with an overall record of 26-11. He has the most post-fight bonuses in the history of the UFC’s featherweight division with eight, including six Fight of the Night awards and two Knockout of the Night awards. In his 26 career wins, he has 11 wins by KO/TKO, 4 wins by submission and 11 wins by decision. He has struggled of late, however, and over his last five fights he is just 1-4. At age 37 it seems his illustrious career is winding down. Still, in his most recent trip to the octagon, he won a unanimous decision over Kron Gracie in October of 2019. He will look to put together consecutive wins for the first time in over three years.
These fighters are longtime veterans of the fight game and both will be prepared to go to war on Saturday. Pineda, however, is fighting as good as ever and should have the edge in this fight. Pineda is out for blood every time he fights and the odds of this fight ending before reaching the judges’ scorecards seem much lower than I would expect. I expect this fight to start quickly and to end with a bang. Swanson will be looking to prove he still belongs and ought to come out strong. Pineda also has something to prove after a mediocre record his first time around in the UFC. With a win on Saturday, he will have a winning record inside the octagon. Pineda is the more accomplished grappler in this fight and I expect him to chase a submission early. Swanson will be looking to score his third Knockout of the Night award.
I expect fireworks in this fight and like the winner of this fight to get a nice conclusion bonus. The oddsmakers also believe this will end early, but at just -140 to do so, I believe they have underestimated the finishing power of these two. For this reason, this fight should be used heavily in GPP contests. Pineda is the better looking fighter at this point in their careers and he should get the bulk of the exposure between the two. Still, at a below average price, Swanson is worth a small number of lineups as well. In cash contests, I would only consider Pineda, however. In the end I expect Pineda gets the win and I predict he gets it done before the start of round three.
For more Fight Study, be sure to keep your eye on FantasyCruncher.com leading up to UFC 256 on December 12.
UFC 256: FIGHT #6, Pineda vs Swanson
For Fight Study on UFC 256: FIGHT #5, Gane vs Dos Santos, click HERE.
For Fight Study on UFC 256: FIGHT #7, Fiziev vs Moicano, click HERE.