The College Football Rundown – DraftKings & FanDuel DFS – December 5, 2020
Welcome back everyone – it is a joy and honor to be back for the 2020 College Football season, no matter the capacity we get it in. We likely will have some non-traditional slates and some smaller ones at that, but nevertheless, we still get football and I think that is all that really matters to us. If you are reading this, you likely can note that it is completely free. All written content on FantasyCruncher is free – the only time you will be charged is if you want access to the optimizer and access to my projections. In that case, you can follow this link to sign up – with weekly/monthly/annual options across three different tiers that should be able to fit every level of DFS player. I will be providing written content for any slate of three games or more, though projections and optimizer access will be available for all normal and showdown slates.
Justin Fields, OHST – DK: $10,000 | FD: $11,200
Ohio State falls in an interesting spot right now as they are one PPD game away from not being able to participate in the Big Ten Championship game, yet they are also viewed as a top-four team right now in the College Football Playoff. For me, what this means, is every game, possession, snap is going to be important for the Buckeyes going forward as there is not a guaranteed game for them the next week and they are going to need to make every statement possible. There are five quarterbacks $9,000 or higher on DraftKings this weekend and I think there is an argument that can be made for all of them, but in the end, if you are spending up here Fields is the best choice with Ohio States 42 point team total and the overall involvement of Fields on the ground and through the air. Fields is averaging 34.5 fantasy points per game on the year with a floor of 30 and a ceiling of 43 so far on the year. Ryan Day will not be coaching the Buckeyes this weekend, but I do not see a scenario where the foot is taken off of the as for Ohio State. For that reason, I feel Fields is the highest ceiling and highest floor play on the slate.
Jack Plummer, PUR – DK: $7,900 | FD: $8,700
Plummer has started two games for Purdue this season and has averaged 27.8 fantasy points for us over that stretch. Plummer also has two of the best wide receiver weapons in David Bell and Rondale Moore and as long as both are healthy this is going to be a passing game that is always in play. Plummer has gotten an easy draw in his two starts in Minnesota and Rutgers (though both losses) and that trend doesn’t stop this week with Nebraska. Nebraska is currently allowing 498 yards of total offense and 52 points per game to their opponents and Purdue is averaging 31 points with Plummer under center. The price here for DraftKings is up there, but this game does carry the highest total on the slate. I think the price on FanDuel is much more manageable, but we are looking at a high volume passer in a positive matchup.
Adrian Martinez, NEB – DK: $7,200 | FD: $8,000
Martinez is more expensive than the third quarterback usually listed in this article but the truth is there really isn’t any standout value under the $7,000 mark on DraftKings and not a matchup that we can really take advantage of. As I already mentioned once, and likely will mention again, this is the first week that I feel the pricing on DraftKings is actually pretty sharp and restrictive, which should make building teams this week a little more challenging than weeks past. I typically also do not like focusing on two quarterbacks from the same game in this article, but our highest game total this week is 62.5 with Purdue and Nebraska, and with two poor defenses, we are going to aim for a shootout here with quarterbacks being heavily involved. For the Cornhuskers, this shouldn’t be an issue as there is no real established running game here. Dedrick Mills has been limited the past three games and Wan’Dale Robinson continues to play a hybrid RB/WR position. Martinez was benched for a few weeks as Luke McCaffery got his shot and though McCaffery had a few decent showings, Martinez is still the higher ceiling fantasy quarterback here and Scott Frost may be in our corner with this one. Martinez started last week against Iowa and performed admirably, completing 90% of his passes, though he couldn’t find the end zone in the passing game. He did manage 12 carries for 28 yards and a touchdown against the tough Iowa defense. It should be easier skating this week as Purdue is allowing 460 yards of total offense a game. The price is modest on each site and though its not dirt cheap, if Martinez stays active in the running game, he has multiple touchdown upside. A direct pivot here would be Jeff Sims of Georgia Tech.
Something to watch for: Keep an eye on Tennessee’s starting quarterback situation. If Harrison Bailey is given the start we can find him at $4,500 against a Florida defense that has allowed over 330 yards passing a game. This would be a tough spot for a true freshman to start, but realistically there isn’t anyone else producing at the quarterback position for the Volunteers right now.
Isaiah Spiller, TA&M – DK: $7,600 | FD: $8,700
There was a lot of pressure on me with this specific writeup as I had to break the string of only writing up Big Ten players as that is just the way this article has shaken out so far. All jokes aside, Spiller has been one of the most consistent running backs in college football this season, producing massive games against Florida, Mississippi State, and last week against LSU. Outside of being stymied by Alabama for only 5.5 fantasy points, Spiller is still averaging over 21 fantasy points per contest and 112 yards rushing per game. As mentioned in the quarterback section, DraftKings pricing is sharp this week, making rostering multiple higher price players more of a struggle this week. Kyren Williams is in a great spot against Syracuse this week, but I wonder if this is finally a week to get him some rest and the rest of the running back committee there some reps. Breece Hall has a tough matchup with West Virginia and their top ten ranked defense. Horvath and Teague are worthy rosters, but I prefer the passing game in each. I think Spiller makes the most sense in this upper tier as we get a bit of savings but someone who is guaranteed the volume. The game total here against Auburn is only 48.5, but Auburn’s defense hasn’t been anything to really write home about. Some may shy away from the prenotion that they are a bit better than they actually are this year as Auburn is allowing a hair over 400 total yards per game. With Kellen Mond only averaging about 220 in the passing game, Spiller should see his large workload between 22-25 carries. As a bonus, despite back to back lower output weeks, Ainias Smith has seen a deep discount on his price down to $5,500 – which is $1,600 from just two weeks ago.
Tyler Goodson – DK: $7,400 | FD: N/A [and Mekhi Sargent – DK: $4,800]
Goodson is off of his highest volume week of the season last week against Nebraska when he took 30 carries for 111 yards and also caught two passes for 21 yards. Goodson did not find the end zone, but it still marked the third time in four games that Goodson has broken 110 yards. The lowest fantasy output so far for Goodson is 13.1 against a tough Northwestern rush defense, otherwise we have seen big multiple touchdown games out of Goodson against Michigan State and Minnesota. Despite all the games for Iowa on this shortened season, this week’s matchup against Illinois may actually be the best as the Illini are currently allowing 182 yards rushing per game and 45 points. The Iowa passing game is nearly non-existant as a consistent threat so Goodson will once again be leaned on for this one. Mekhi Sargent will also steal some carries here or more so, likely steal a touchdown, as Sargent has a touchdown in all but one games this year and seven on the year. Sargent only saw five carries against Nebraska, seeing less work in closer games and more work in blowouts. If you view this one as a blowout we can get some extreme savings on Sargent here. Both should factor heavily as the offensive gameplan for the Hawkeyes is completely written around the running game as long as Spencer Petras and his 6.5 yard per completion average exist as the starter. (Fun fact: Petras in six starts has five interceptions, which is a number larger than his touchdowns which is only four)
Dezmon Jackson, OKST – DK: $6,200 | FD: $4,900
I want to quickly address the FanDuel price here of $4,900. Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy said earlier this week that “as of right now” Jackson is the starting running back. Of course, with clarity of Chuba Hubbard’s injury this could definitely change but it is hard to ignore the 36 carry, 235 yard, three-touchdown performance Jackson had in his debut showing for the Cowboys. It would be hard-pressed to not give Jackson another start as Hubbard is heading to the NFL and there is no real reason to rush or risk his injury. If Jackson does get another start, this is a massive pricing error on FanDuel’s price that will certainly be massive chalk. Even at $6,200 on DraftKings, this actually is one of the cheaper prices for what should be a bell-cow back on paper.
Ricky Person JR., NCST – DK: $4,300 | FD: N/A
While there isn’t a current standout value play on this slate there are still a few guys who just feel priced too low with Person being one of them. This is actually the cheapest price for Person on the year despite four straight weeks of double-digit carries and at least 15 yards in the passing game. Person is the number two to Zonovan Knight in this offense, but Person Jr. still has 126 attempts on the year for 576 yards and four touchdowns. Georgia Tech has been torched on the ground this year – allowing 202.7 yards per game. This is not a lock and load play, but it is one to keep in mind if you are looking for a higher ceiling value.
Trey Sermon – DK: $3,500 | FD: $5,900
I Will start by saying here I am not in love with this play, but from a raw pricing standpoint, it is just simply too cheap at $3,500. Sermon in his four games played has seen attempts of 11, 13, 12, and 9 and has not called below 55 yards rushing. Sermon also has a reception in each of his games but has yet to find the end zone. This doesn’t give us a huge ceiling here, but it also gives us a floor of around seven fantasy points for $3,500 which is a 2x value. Sermon only seeing nine carries last week I attribute to Indiana keeping the game a little closer, though in the end it may have only cost Sermon 3-4 carries. The Buckeyes are 21 point favorites this week and there won’t be anything to change the workload here. If you are trying to fill a flex spot for cheap, this is one of the better current options.
Something to watch for: Watch for the status of David Bailey from Boston College. If he is unable to go, Travis Levy makes a very intriguing value play at $4,700.
Chris Olave, OHST – DK: $7,100 | FD: $8,800
We are deep into the season at this point, so if you are a regular reader then the statement I am about to make will likely sound like a broken record – but Chris Olave is too cheap and is another example of DraftKings pricing that just comes up short. Olave is at $7,100 – which certainly isn’t cheap, but he was $7,600 last week and produced a 21.1 fantasy line which is nearly a 3x value on his salary. There really is no reason to drop Olave’s price by $500 here as his lowest fantasy output on the year is 19.4 in a blowout against Nebraska. As mentioned with Justin Fields, I don’t see Ohio State taking the foot off the gas in this one. The fear here, much like every week, is the chance of a PPD – However, I have to write this article as if that won’t happen. If somehow it does, Rondale Moore is my favorite pivot at $6,800 – just continuing with the Big Ten trend here.
Zay Flowers, BC – DK: $5,200 | FD: $7,600
Flowers likely isn’t a name that is loudly covered in the CFB landscape, but he is a guy who now has eight straight weeks of double-digit fantasy output. Whether it is a volume week, or a few catches for a touchdown, it hasn’t been extremely flashy but Flowers remains a guy who just gets it done. Last week against Louisville, Flowers caught seven passes for 87 yards. On the season, Flowers has 42 receptions for 648 yards and seven touchdowns. There are a few factors at play this week for Boston College – first it starts with their quarterback Phil Jurkovec who has practiced this week and should play, but was knocked out of last weeks contest in the second half. Second, David Bailey is banged up which could see the running back one out for the Eagles this week. This could push the passing game into a little more volume. Regardless, Virginia, Boston College’s opponent this week is no stranger to allowing points and yards, as they are allowing nearly 300 yards through the air per game and 32 points. Flowers comes at a $600 discount compared to his recent pricing.
From this point on, there really isn’t a clear cut player under $5,200 that I am comfortable writing up as a guy I am going to be focusing on. With pricing the way it is this week, I am seeing myself spread out a bit more in this lower tier area. I gave five running back plays this week to make up for the lack of wide receiver plays, but I obviously won’t leave you empty-handed – TJ Simmons – $5,100, Emeka Emezie – $4,900, Charlie Kolar $4,800, Chimere Dike (if Davis and Pryor are out for Wisconsin) – $4,200 are all guys I plan on having exposure to. For my full player list, check up the cheat sheet link below.