The College Football Rundown – DraftKings & FanDuel DFS – November 28, 2020
Welcome back everyone – it is a joy and honor to be back for the 2020 College Football season, no matter the capacity we get it in. We likely will have some non-traditional slates and some smaller ones at that, but nevertheless, we still get football and I think that is all that really matters to us. If you are reading this, you likely can note that it is completely free. All written content on FantasyCruncher is free – the only time you will be charged is if you want access to the optimizer and access to my projections. In that case, you can follow this link to sign up – with weekly/monthly/annual options across three different tiers that should be able to fit every level of DFS player. I will be providing written content for any slate of three games or more, though projections and optimizer access will be available for all normal and showdown slates.
Matt Corral, OLE – DK: $10,100 | FD: $11,000
If you are going to spend up on this slate, I am going to bypass Kyle Trask for Matt Corral as he is off of back to back 46 or higher fantasy performances. Corral passed for 513 yards and four touchdowns against South Carolina and then 412 and six touchdowns two weeks prior against Vanderbilt. Now, neither of those two defenses are anything special, but either is Mississippi State this weekend. I will say, Miss State is one of the better defenses that Ole Miss will face as of late, but the home game and the Lane Kiffin lead offense is going to keep me heavy on this team until they prove me wrong. Mississippi’s defensive strength lies more in containing the run, so if anything we are going to give a small knock to the running game this week. But really, Corral hasn’t been using his legs much, or getting equity out of them in fantasy output. I don’t think you need to spend up at quarterback this week, but Corral holds a 50 fantasy point ceiling.
Mac Jones, BAMA – DK: $8,200 | FD: $9,700
Mac Jones hasn’t lit up the fantasy trees recently, but he has been incredibly consistent. With the loss of Jaylen Waddle, Jones is playing with a little shorter of a deck right now, but Bama itself hasn’t seen any issue as they have outscored their opponents 104-3 over their last two games. Alabama is once again large favorites this week at 24 points against Auburn, though it may be an Auburn team that does allow Jones to air the ball out a little bit more and keep this game close. The 63-3 win over Kentucky took Mac Jones out of the equation pretty early and he had his lowest fantasy output at 16.2 points for the season. All in all, Jones still has nearly 2,500 yards passing on the year and 18 touchdowns with just three interceptions. $8,200 is as mid-tier as we can get and it is a $300 discount as compared to last week.
Terry Wilson, UK – DK: $4,900 | FD: $7,100
This is a tournament play only for me but a sub $5,000 price tag on Terry Wilson and the Wildcats against Florida may have a window to paying itself off. Wilson himself has been hit or miss this year, which is part one to this equation. If we get bad Wilson, our floor here could be in the 4-8 range, which goes without saying is not optimal. But, Wilson has also had some tough matchups recently, struggling against Alabama and being benched against Missouri. Florida has had a prolific offense this season but they have also had a defense that has allowed teams to stay in games. Florida’s pass defense is allowing over 330 yards per game and they are allowing 495 yards total as a whole. The Kentucky offense is not one that is going to be able to go score for score with Florida, but if Wilson is able to use his legs a bit and find the end zone with them, then this is a play that can pay itself off. Tread lightly, but the price is just too damn cheap here.
Master Teague III, OSU – DK: $7,700 | FD: $9,200
Master Teague is off of a 26 carry, 169 yard, two-touchdown performance against Indiana and somehow saw a $300 drop on DraftKings this week. This is pretty much a pricing play for me, as Teague seems slightly underpriced for a guy who has found the end zone six times in his first four games. Trey Sermon will keep eating some carries here, but the Illinois defense has allowed 45 points per game and Teague falls as the fourth most expensive option – $900 and $1,900 under Etienne and Harris.
Chuba Hubbard, OKST – DK: $6,600 | FD: $8,500
Another week, another Chuba Hubbard price that is way too low. Now, Hubbard only had six carries against Kansas State as he left with an injury and he followed that up with only eight against Oklahoma, but in a game that Oklahoma State’s starting quarterback was injured in the first quarter. So yes, it is now three straight games with Hubbard not cracking 100 yards, but given all the factors I think it is pretty fair to see why. This is a $1,400 drop from three weeks ago and a deep discount for one of the best running back in the nation in a positive matchup. Texas Tech is allowing 486 per game and 37 points per. The recent injury woes is a little bit of a concern, but the low-price is worth the risk here and this is a strong bounce-back spot.
Stevie Scott III – DK: $5,100 | FD: $8,100
Scott found no running room against Ohio State last Sunday, as he only saw seven carries for six total yards. Indiana also played from behind all game, rendering their run game basically useless. Prior to the Ohio State game, Scott saw 23 carries against Michigan State, 24 against Michigan, 21 against Rutgers, and 20 against Penn State. I will take the prior four games as more of the fact and the Ohio State game as the outlier here. Scott at his highest was a $7,400 running back, making the $5,100 price here pretty stark and drastic. This week’s opponent, Maryland, is allowing 325 yards on the ground per game and stands as the worst rushing defense in the Big Ten. Scott should bounce back to his volume workload here and the price here is going to almost certainly make this chalk.
Ty Fryfogle, IND – DK: $7,800 | FD: $10,000
I am just not sure I can fade the Penix-Fryfogle connection right now as Fryfogle has 560 yards receiving and six touchdowns over his last *three* games. That is 25 receptions for 560 yards. This has shaken out to 30.2, 46, and 49.8 fantasy points and now Indiana gets a softer matchup with Maryland. It is impressive the work Fryfogle has done against Ohio State, Michigan State, and Michigan, so I don’t think we will see a let down against a Maryland team that is allowing 537 yards and 43 points per game. It is hard to imagine that Fryfogle was just $4,300 and $4,700 just three games ago. The price is rightfully up now, but even at $7,800 this feels to be too low if he continues to see his volume.
Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman, NW – DK: $5,600 | FD: $7,600
If you say his name three times fast, you will get a guaranteed touchdown – at least that is what the urban legends say. Northwestern is coming off of an upset of Wisconsin and has positioned themselves as the front runners in their division. RC-B has been the top target for Northwestern and Peyton Ramsey has given the Wildcats a legit pocket passing option. Over the last two games, RC-B has four the end zone four times on 12 receptions and 181 yards. The middle tier of wide receiver pricing is pretty empty this week, especially with the USC game getting PPD. This week for Northwestern it is a Michigan State defense that has allowed 38 points per game. The Northwestern running game hasn’t looked too appealing over the past few weeks and though this is a game they can get back in line, I like RC-B to find the end zone again in an easier matchup.
Seth Williams, AUB – DK: $4,500 | FD: $7,100
The matchup for Auburn here is obviously poor against Alabama, but they are still giving up 280 yards through the air. The other positive when playing Alabama is you know your team is going to be playing from behind and at least airing it out consistently. Seth Williams has hit double-digit fantasy points in all but one game this season and is 19th in the nation for total targets. Williams on the year is averaging 9.7 targets per game and holds a 30.3% team target share. The ceiling might not be incredibly high here with Auburn being slated for just 19.5 points, but they will have to throw the ball to give themselves any real chance here and Williams gets a $1,800 discount as compared to his last price of $6,300.