The College Football Rundown – DraftKings & FanDuel DFS – Friday, November 27, 2020
Double-duty this week as we get a nine-game Friday post-Thanksgiving day slate and a full Saturday slate. This article will focus on the Friday nine-game slate (eight now after the UAB PPD).
Malik Willis, LIB – DK: $10,300 | FD: $12,000
The price here on Willis is obviously astronomical, but he also gives us the top ceiling on the slate with his dual-threat ability. “Malik Willis the passer” isn’t really a statement that is going to win you the fantasy contests, but Malik Willis the rusher is, as he has 491 yards and six rushing touchdowns on the season. Now, to be fair, Willis can air it out, but was exposed a bit against tougher talent and NC State this past week when they held him to just a 40% competition percentage. Liberty this week has the softest matchup on the slate with UMass and hold a 46.75 team total. UMass is allowing over 440 yards per game, 41 points, and 308 yards on the ground. I expect Willis to be able to use his legs at his will this weekend. This is not a must play in my eyes, but if you can afford it, it is one that can be the benchmark for a GPP win.
Ian Book, ND – DK: $7,300 | FD: $10,000
The Notre Dame/North Carolina game right now is projected for 67.5 points with Notre Dame just a five point favorite. This paints this game as a shootout and if I was a quarterback from either side it is going to be one not throwing against a top 20 pass defense. The UNC defense has been hit or miss all year, but the offense has been clicking recently, scoring points of 59, 56, 41, and 48 in their last four games. I see the Notre Dame defense being able to slow them down considerably, but there will still be points to go around here. Ian Book had a slow start to his season, but has now thrown for over 300 yards in two of his last four games and narrowly missed the mark last week against Boston College at 283. Book has also been more consistent with his legs, rushing at least eight times for at least 40 yards in each of his last four games. The Notre Dame offense is near full health right now with McKinley and Skowronek and the price of $7,300 on DraftKings feels far too cheap for the matchup.
Xazavian Valladay, WYO – DK: $7,900 | FD: $10,300
Though Wyoming only has three games played this year, Valladay has been a consistently high volume rusher for them, posting attempts of 22, 32, and 28 in his three games. Valladay averaged 5.3 yards per carry against Colorado State for 147 yards and a touchdown while also averaging 5.1 per carry against Hawaii for 163 and two touchdowns. The offense here runs mostly through the running game and this week Wyoming faces UNLV – a team who is allowing 287 yards on the ground per game so far on the season. The passing game hasn’t been super strong for the Cowboys here and UNLV has been able to hold other quarterbacks in check, so Valladay should be leaned on heavily in this one.
Tyler Goodson, IOWA – DK: $6,400 | FD: $9,000
Goodson was priced at $7,500 just last week against Penn State and though he didn’t have a huge game (20 carries, 78 yards, touchdown) it is not a dud of a game to drop someones price by $1,100. Alas, that is what we have here as we can get Goodson at a deep discount this week. Through five games on the year, Goodson is averaging 21.2 fantasy points per contests and is averaging 5.5 yards per carry with six touchdowns on the ground. Iowa finds themselves as 13 point favorites this week against a Nebraska team allowing 498 yards of total offense a game – not to mention 52 points per game. Though Goodson will have Mahki Sergant taking some carries from him, this offense should be able to move with ease on the poor Nebraska defense. I will take the heavy discount here, though I expect this to be a higher owned play.
Dyami Brown, UNC – DK: $7,200 | FD: $8,800
I already touched on how I feel this game has the highest chance for a shootout, so despite the bad on paper matchup, Dyami Brown still is the top receiving option for the Tar Heels. If we eliminate week 10 against Duke where Brown went just two receptions for 25 yards, Brown’s last three games have been seven for 105, 11 for 240 and three touchdowns, and eight for 163 and two touchdowns. Overall on the year Brown has 45 receptions for 829 yards and eight touchdown grabs. There is bust potential here but UNC also carries a 31.5 team total, which is one of the highest totals against Notre Dame on the year. The matchup may scare more people off of this play than it should as for besides the name recognition of “Notre Dame” and its association with a strong defense, a team total doesn’t lie.
Javon McKinley, ND – DK: $4,300 | FD: $7,000
And rounding us out we are staying in the same game for Javon McKinley who at just $4,300 feels underpriced for his recent production. McKinley has at least five receptions in each of his last three games, having over 90 yards in two of those. He has failed to find the end zone so far in 2020 but he does hold a 17% target share for Notre Dame. That also being said, McKinley also leads the team in receptions. The Notre Dame offense isn’t one I often target for DFS, but in games where their opponent can keep it close we should see a different approach from the Fighting Irish offense. Combining Notre Dame’s last two games, they have scored 92 points and have allowed 71.