Fight Study – November 21, 2020
In the last fight before two flyweight title fights, Tim Means squares off against Mike Perry in a welterweight bout from the UFC’s Apex facility in Las Vegas. Perry opened as a bigger favorite, but the betting public has bet him down to just a small favorite. He is the more expensive fighter to roster in DFS contests. He is available for $8,200 on DraftKings and $17 on Fanduel. Means is priced slightly less and can be entered into lineups for $8,000 and $15 respectively. This fight is scheduled for three rounds although it is a slight favorite to conclude earlier at -145 to end before reaching a decision.
Means has an extensive fight history with an overall record of 30-12-1 with one no contest decision as a professional. He has 19 wins by KO/TKO, 5 wins by submission and 6 wins by decision. He is 3-2 over his last five fights with two first round wins in that span and one win by decision. He will have a sizable four inch height advantage on Perry as well as a four inch reach advantage. Making the most of his length will be key to getting a win over the more powerful striker he will be facing. He will not want to stand in the pocket, but should be good at distance and will have the decided advantage with his submission game. At 36-years-old, Means is nearing the end of his career and will be looking to prove he still belongs with a victory on Saturday.
Perry is 14-6 overall with 11 wins by KO/TKO and 3 wins by decision as a professional. After starting out with wins in 4 of his first 5 fights in the UFC, his performance has faltered of late. He is just 3-5 since and has not put together consecutive wins in those eight trips to the octagon. He won his last fight against Mickey Gall by unanimous decision in June of this year and will be looking to get his second straight for the first time since 2017. His first four wins in the UFC were all by KO/TKO, but has not finished an opponent in over three years. Although he has never won a fight by submission, he is a very strong grappler who can muscle his way out of trouble. In 20 professional fights he has only been submitted once. There is some concern with Perry’s training due to his huge miss at making weight on Friday.
Watch for Perry to lead the charge early trying to penetrate his opponent’s reach and fight within the pocket. Means will do his best to keep Perry at distance where his length can allow him to do damage without risking taking much. If Perry is able to step inside Means’ range, look for Means to try to change levels and bring this fight to the ground where he will be in much less danger. He must be careful not to wear himself down too much, however, as Perry isn’t easy to submit. Means must not let Perry pressure him against the fence where he can do his best work from the clinch. This fight is narrowly handicapped and no outcome should be too surprising in this one.
Although the odds favor a fight to end inside the distance, I suspect this one may end by decision and won’t count on high scoring in this one. I believe Means will do his best to keep this fight from becoming a brawl and don’t expect he will have much success bringing this fight to the ground either. Means is only averaging one takedown per fifteen minutes inside the octagon and Perry doesn’t go down easily. I believe this fight likely ends in a decision with Perry being just slightly more likely to get his hand raised in the end. These fighters are very close in salary and there isn’t a good deal of difference between their potentials in DFS contests. This fight may be worth a small number of GPP lineups, but I would be extra careful using Perry much given his weight issues leading into this fight.
For more Fight Study, be sure to keep your eye on FantasyCruncher.com leading up to UFC 255 on November 21.
UFC 255: FIGHT #3, Means vs Perry
For Fight Study on UFC 255: FIGHT #2, Maia vs Shevchenko, click HERE.
For Fight Study on UFC 255: FIGHT #4, Calvillo vs Chookagian, click HERE.