Fight Study – November 21, 2020
The UFC will pair middleweights, Jordan Wright and Joaquin Buckley, in a bout at the Apex facility in Las Vegas on Saturday. Buckley is the favorite in the matchup and will be the more expensive play in DFS contests. He is available for $8,900 on DraftKings and for $19 on Fanduel. Wright is more affordable at $7,300 and $10 respectively. This fight is scheduled for three five minute rounds, but the betting lines suggest a much shorter fight. This fight is a -515 favorite to end before the final bell and is a -152 favorite to conclude before the midpoint of the second round.
Wright is on a tear with a record of 11-0 with 1 no contest decision in his 12 fight career. He was finished once in his fight with Anthony Hernandez on the Contender Series, but a failed drug test on Hernandez’s end resulted in the no contest ruling. Wright is well-rounded with 6 wins by KO/TKO and 5 wins by submission in his 11 victories. He has only gone outside the first round once in his career when he won by TKO over Gabriel Checco inside the first minute of the second round. In fact, his second longest fight lasted just 2:48 of the first round. To date he has four finishes inside of one minute. He defeated Isaac Villanueva in his only UFC fight in just 91 seconds. He will have the height advantage by six inches and a four inch reach advantage over Buckley on Saturday.
Buckley may be the shorter fighter, but he is not unfamiliar with opponents who have significant length advantages. His last three victories were all over taller fighters and he was able to finish each by KO/TKO. He is 1-1 in the UFC losing his debut against Kevin Holland and winning by KO his last time out over Impa Kasanganay as a +206 underdog. He will be the favorite for the first time in his UFC career on Saturday. This will be his third UFC fight in three months and his fourth fight of 2020. He has twice lost by KO/TKO and will certainly have his hands full with Wright on Saturday.
This fight promises fireworks and I expect them to start flying from the jump. Neither fighter likes to leave things up the judges and this fight is likely to finish in the first round. Given Wright’s significant length advantages, I would expect Buckley to come hard rather than stand back and play into that advantage. Both fighters will prefer to start strong and the expectation of a finish is extremely high for this matchup. Both fighters have power and the winner of this fight figures to score an early conclusion bonus.
I am not sure why Buckley is such a significant favorite, but he is my pick in this one. This fight could go either way, however, and at Wright’s salary he makes a top underdog play for GPP contests. He has demonstrated his ability to get quick finishes and has a high ceiling despite his poor odds. Both fighters are worthy of GPP lineups, but Buckley will have the harder time bringing value to his price tag. Still, this fight has all the signs of being a high scoring one for the winner and Buckley should be able to put up a big score in a win. Given the disparity of their salaries and the high scoring potential of this fight, I am recommending high exposure for this fight and a nearly even split of lineups between these fighters.
For more Fight Study, be sure to keep your eye on FantasyCruncher.com leading up to UFC 255 on November 21.
UFC 255: FIGHT #7, Wright vs Buckley
For Fight Study on UFC 255: FIGHT #6, Royval vs Moreno, click HERE.
For Fight Study on UFC 255: FIGHT #8, Lipski vs Shevchenko, click HERE.