Fight Study – November 20, 2020
The UFC is bringing two skilled welterweights together when Jared Gooden faces off against Alan Jouban at the Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday. Jouban is 11 years the senior to Gooden and he will be the betting favorite and more expensive fighter in DFS contests. Jouban is priced at $8,300 on DraftKings and $16 on Fanduel. Gooden is available for $7,900 and $15 respectively. This fight has been set for three rounds of action, but the oddsmakers have made this fight a -160 favorite to finish before reaching the full fifteen minutes.
Gooden is the much younger fighter, but he has fought just two fewer professional fights in his career. He has a record of 17-4 with 7 wins by KO/TKO, 6 wins by submission and 4 wins by decision. This will be his first UFC fight, however, and he is currently riding a three fight win streak. In his last four victories he has four finishes with two coming in the first round and two in the second. In his 21 fight career, Gooden has only been finished once. He is a powerful striker with a jiu-jitsu brown belt. He will have a three inch reach advantage and will be fighting in his third fight this year. He has all the tools but does have a tendency to be careless with his defense. He must do a better job of defending against a seasoned veteran like Jouban who has a wealth of experience in the octagon.
Jouban only has a few more fights under his belt than his opponent, but he has much more experience in the UFC. Jouban is 16-7 overall with 11 wins by KO/TKO and a UFC record of 7-5. However, since defeating Mike Perry in 2016 he is just 1-3 over his last four fights and has not fought in over 19 months. At age 37 there is good cause for concern that he is no longer the fighter he once was. He did manage to win decisively over Ben Saunders in February of 2018, but that was during a span where Saunders won just one fight in seven trips to the octagon. He was embarrassed by Niko Price in the fight prior where he lasted just 104 seconds. Price is comparable to Gooden and stands also at 6’0″ and has the same three inch reach advantage that Gooden will have over Jouban.
Jouban will not want to grapple with Gooden and he will look to keep this fight upright. However, although he has a long history of KO/TKO finishes he has just one over the last 4 1/2 years. It seems unlikely that he will find a finish in this fight, but Gooden must not ignore his defense against a fighter like Jouban. If Gooden pressures too much, he may open himself up to Jouban’s counter punches. For this reason, Gooden is likely to start slowly and look to leverage his longer reach. If Gooden is able to land combinations, he may have a chance to finish his opponent. Additionally, if this fight does go to the ground, Gooden will be in the driver’s seat against a Jouban who has never submitted an opponent in his 23 fight career.
In DFS contests, I like Gooden here. He is the less expensive fighter and given Jouban’s layoff he will be the sharper fighter in the octagon on Saturday. He will have the reach and speed advantage over Jouban who is in his late 30’s. Jouban is a very experienced fighter and can by no means be counted out in this fight, but I think he has less of a chance to score a finish while carrying a higher salary. Although this fight could go either way, Gooden has the better scoring potential and I predict he will pull off the upset. I like him a lot in GPP contests, although it would be wise to use caution with a fighter making his debut against such an established fighter with a dozen UFC fights to his credit. I don’t love either fighter in cash lineups, but would prefer Gooden in cash contests as well.
For more Fight Study, be sure to keep your eye on FantasyCruncher.com leading up to UFC 255 on November 21.
UFC 255: FIGHT #10, Gooden vs Jouban
For Fight Study on UFC 255: FIGHT #9, Dalby vs Rodriguez, click HERE.
For Fight Study on UFC 255: FIGHT #11, Stoltzfus vs Daukaus, click HERE.