Fight Study – November 21, 2020
The number six ranked contender in the UFC’s flyweight division, Brandon Royval, takes on the number two ranked contender, Brandon Moreno, in Las Vegas on Saturday. In a fight that is hopeful to be a great one, Moreno is the favorite and the more expensive fighter in DFS contests. He is priced at $8,600 on DraftKings and $18 on Fanduel. Royval is available for $7,600 and $14 respectively. This is a three round fight and current odds make this one a pick ’em as to whether or not this fight reaches a decision.
Royval has moved quickly up the rankings with two finishes in two visits to the UFC’s octagon. He is 12-4 overall with 3 wins by KO/TKO, 8 wins by submission and 1 win by decision. He is a perfect 2-0 in the UFC with impressive wins over Tim Elliott and Kai Kara France. He is on a four fight win streak having won all four by submission. Over his last 8 fights he has just one loss to Casey Kenney by decision two years ago this month. Royval has yet to be finished in his career and with a victory over Moreno on Saturday will find himself in the running for a title challenge.
Moreno is certain to get a title shot with a win in this one. Only Joseph Benavidez is ranked above him as a contender and Benavidez has twice lost to the current champ, Deiveson Figueiredo. Moreno will have no shortage of motivation in this fight. He is 17-5 overall with 2 wins by KO/TKO, 10 wins by submission and 5 wins by decision. He is 2-0-1 in his last three UFC fights with each of those going to the judges’ scorecards. Moreno has yet to earn his first KO/TKO win in the UFC in eight trips to the octagon. Moreno is a submission specialist and will face another high level grappler in Royval on Saturday.
These fighters are similar in many ways and this fight will go a long way toward defining their career trajectories. They have a combined 18 submissions between them and if this fight goes to the ground fans will be treated to a high level jiu-jitsu battle. Royval may be more dependent on his ground game, however, and Moreno figures to have the edge on the judges’ scorecards in a stand up affair. Still, the difference between these two fighters appears to be razor-thin and only by allowing this one to play out can we know anything more. I expect this fight to be contended on their feet to begin, but eventually this one will go to the ground where it is likely to be decided.
This fight has good potential for a submission finish, but as both are skilled grapplers, the potential for a low scoring battle on the ground is quite present. For this reason, this fight should be used cautiously in GPP contests. There is no guarantee of high scoring, but Fanduel scoring does favor this kind of fight for it’s grappling friendly scoring. Royval has the much higher average in fantasy contests (by 37.9 FPPF according to DraftKings scoring) and the lower salary making him the more enticing play. I will give them each limited exposure in GPP lineups but make Royval the better cash play for a high floor at a below average salary. Both fighters play better on Fanduel for my money, but both are deserving of small exposures in GPP contests on DraftKings as well.
For more Fight Study, be sure to keep your eye on FantasyCruncher.com leading up to UFC 255 on November 21.
UFC 255: FIGHT #6, Royval vs Moreno
For Fight Study on UFC 255: FIGHT #5, Craig vs Rua, click HERE.
For Fight Study on UFC 255: FIGHT #7, Wright vs Buckley, click HERE.