Fight Study – November 21, 2020
UFC’s Main Event features a title fight between challenger, Alex Perez, and reigning champ, Deiveson Figueiredo, for the men’s flyweight belt. Figueiredo is a heavy favorite and will have the higher salary of the two fighters. He is priced at $9,000 on DraftKings and $21 on Fanduel. Perez is available for $7,200 and $18 respectively. As with all title fights in the UFC, this fight is scheduled for five rounds, however, current odds indicate a likelihood that this fight will conclude before the final bell as it is a -360 favorite to end inside the distance.
Despite being a sizable dog in this fight, Perez is an excellent challenger and cannot be overlooked. Although he is just 28-years-old, this will be his 30th career fight. He has an overall record of 24-5 with 5 wins by KO/TKO, 7 wins by submission and 12 wins by decision. He has won three straight, including a win over Jussier Formiga, the only man to have defeated Figueiredo. He is 6-1 in the UFC with his only loss coming from Joseph Benavidez who is the number one ranked contender in the division. In his six victories inside the octagon, he has four finishes including three in the first round. His best weapon on Saturday may be his low kicks which he used so effectively against Formiga.
Figueiredo is an all around beast who pairs high-level striking with world class grappling. His speed is incredible and his power at 125 lb is mind blowing. He is 19-1 overall with 9 wins by KO/TKO, 7 wins by submission and 3 wins by decision. His only loss to date was a three round decision in favor of Jussier Formiga. Since that fight he has won four straight with three finishes in that span where he made short work of Tim Elliott and twice finished Benavidez. He has a two and a half reach advantage over Perez despite giving up one inch in height. He has a lightning fast jab he places with accuracy and power and throws a 1-2 in the blink of an eye. If he can defend against Perez’s kicks, he should have the best of this fight both on his feet and on the ground.
Figueiredo figures to pressure from the opening bell. Perez is at a reach disadvantage and will need to land leg kicks to combat Figueiredo’s longer reach. If he is able to land his low kicks, however, Figueiredo may be in trouble. As evidenced in his dominating first round finish of Formiga, Perez has the ability to chop at his opponent’s lead leg and destroy their ability to initiate an effective offense. Outside of this, Figueiredo should have the edge in all other aspects of this fight. Perez is very good at his, however, and he has a chance in this fight if he can land with consistency.
In DFS contests, both fighters have the ability to score well, although Perez’s chances are much smaller. Given his low salary on DraftKings, however, this will make him very playable in GPP contests. Additionally, the longer Perez can extend this fight the better play he becomes in cash lineups where the five rounds of scoring potential may make him a decent play even in a loss. If this fight is closely contested over five rounds, there is certainly cause to consider rostering both fighters in the same lineup, but I would severely limit double exposure to a small number of lineups in GPP contests or strictly to cash lineups. This strategy won’t do well on Fanduel where both fighters are priced above average. I suggest sticking to single exposure lineups, however, and Figueiredo is my preferred play in this matchup. Give him a healthy exposure in GPP contests and I like him as a solid cash play as well.
For more Fight Study, be sure to keep your eye on FantasyCruncher.com leading up to UFC 255 on November 21.
UFC 255: FIGHT #1, Perez vs Figueiredo
For Fight Study on UFC 255: FIGHT #2, Maia vs Shevchenko, click HERE.