DFS Analysis for Ortega vs Jung in Abu Dhabi on DraftKings (10/17/20)
Once again the UFC heads to Abu Dhabi for more MMA action from Fight Island. After a long look at the card for this event I’ve identified two top value plays for DFS contests on DraftKings on Saturday.
THOMAS ALMEIDA (DK $8,200) – Almeida was on the fast track to the top of the UFC’s bantamweight division before the top ranked contenders slowed down his ascent. After winning 20 consecutive fights, he finally took his first professional loss at the hands of Cody Garbrandt. Over his last four fights, Almeida is a disappointing 1-3 but these three losses were the only ones of his entire career and they were against top competition including Garbrant, Jimmie Rivera and Rob Font whose records are a combined 52-11. To date, Almeida has a record of 21-3 with 17 wins by KO/TKO, 3 wins by submission and one decision victory. His opponent, Jonathan Martinez, is a worthy opponent, but at 3-2 in the UFC he has not faced the level of competition that Almeida has. Almeida is 5-3 in the UFC and is averaging 100.0 FPPF in his victories.
Caveman’s advice: Almeida is priced very well for a fighter with his history of finishes. He has faced the best bantamweights in the UFC and won’t see anything from Martinez that he can’t handle. He scores well in wins and will play the role of the favorite in this fight. Look for a win by KO/TKO in this fight and a good chance at scoring 100+ fantasy points at a salary just a hair above average. Almeida deserves a good deal of exposure in multi-entry contests on DraftKings and will make a decent cash play as well.
(At the time of this writing, Thomas Almeida is -135 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 60.34 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
JESSICA ANDRADE (DK $8,400) – The book on Andrade is fairly simple. When she wins, she scores big. Over her last ten fights she is 7-3. Her three losses during that span were all at the hands of champions and/or former champions in the strawweight division. She also defeated then champion, Rose Namajunas, to win the belt during that same span (she did lose the rematch to Namajunas). In her other six fights during that span (against fighters who were never champ) she averaged 127.1 FPPF. She will face Katlyn Chookagian on Saturday. Chookagian is a solid strawweight but strikes with less volume (Andrade is averaging 11 more significant strikes landed per round) and much less power.
Caveman’s advice: Andrade is priced ridiculously well here. The betting lines make this fight a fairly close one, but I believe Andrade should be a heavier favorite. Still, Andrade is favored and has the much better chance of getting a finish in this fight. She won’t be my favorite cash play, but in GPP contests she should get a good deal of exposure for a history of big scoring against fighters who are not champion-level fighters. Chookagian is not a threat to win the belt anytime soon. Don’t be surprised if this one ends without going a full fifteen minutes.
(At the time of this writing, Jessica Andrade is -156 with the oddsmakers and has projected score of 64.15 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
That’s all for this week. Good luck with your lineups!