Welcome to the MLB DFS League Championship Series (LCS) rundown & cheat sheet column for Wednesday, October 14, 2020.
Looking for help with building line-ups on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo for the 2020 MLB DFS Playoffs? We’ll be here each day covering our thoughts on the Main Slate (2+ games) on the best plays and picks for the day’s MLB Playoff DFS contests!
With just 2 games on most slates from here on in, we need to keep some of the basic small slate principles in mind:
- Make sure that you adjust “batters vs pitcher” settings in the Lineup Cruncher to allow for 2+ vs the default of 0
- Sometimes you’ll want to force in at least 2-3 players that you love on a particular slate against your SPs to allow for a better shot at lineup uniquness
- It’s critical to use some ownership data (especially for you FC Pro members) to create groups of sub-20% owned players for lineup uniqueness in GPPs
- Generally we’re not going to have significantly one-sided games, so all-out team stacks are not often going to be the most profitable path to profit
- Limited options is going to cause us to do deeper dives into things like historical BvP, pitch type data and how starters have fared against their opponents the last couple years
Let’s take a look at some of the key things and facts to know as you head into lineup construction for this two gamer.
The Kershaw scratch really threw us off yesterday, but we weren’t caught completely off guard given we liked Ryan Yarbrough quite a bit. Ian Anderson was very good for his 4 innings, but his 5 walks pushed his pitch count up quickly and forced him to get through the order twice faster than you’d like.
We’re now staring at TB being on the verge of a World Series berth, and they have their stud righty Tyler Glasnow going for them here. He’s a lock and load SP1 for me on DK at an affordable price, and for some reason he’s priced way too cheap on FD as well. You can lock him in on FD with ease given how great he’s throwing right now (13.2 K/9, 2.88 SIERA, 13.5% whiff% in his last 5 starts; all best on the slate amongst starting arms).
On DraftKings, he’ll need to be paired with the likes of either Julio Urias or Kyle Wright. Frankly, both have some good stuff going for them, so I think a 50-50 split is the right way to go exposure-wise here. Urias and the Dodgers are not in a position to let him have a very long leash given their position in the series. It’s also possible they pair him with Clayton Kershaw who has a chance of being available today. So if Urias and the Dodgers get behind early – expect a quick yank. If they’re ahead, he’s likely to get 4-5 innings.
The leash could be a bit longer for Kyle Wright though, and he’s thrown pretty well to close out the year on the surface. It’s pretty key to know though, that Urias (4.99 SIERA) and Wright (4.88 SIERA) have over-performed in their last month of work (2.89 and 3.91 ERAs respectively), so some regression vs what you see in the game log is likely. Either way, you’re hoping for 10-15 points on DK from them and the 50-50 rotation recommendation helps to make sure you have exposure to both of them just in case one gets rocked quickly.
The late surge from the Dodgers/Braves game last night and 2 fairly soft SPs pushed the game total in that one for today to nearly 10.0 (9.5 at the moment). LAD is a -160 favorite on the road here, but I must admit that I really like both offenses. I’m locking in at least 3 bats from each of ATL and LAD in this one as a starting point.
I’m also a fan of the TB bats against Zack Greinke, even though he’s still a decent pitcher. He just likely goes 3-4 innings (unless for some reason Glasnow implodes early and HOU gets out to a big lead), and they then have to rely on a fairly depleted bullpen once again. So, prioritizing bats from ATL/LAD first and then TB is how I’d be approaching it here.
Top plays from TB: Randy Arozarena, Manuel Margot, Ji-Man Choi (if fading expensive 1Bs), Joey Wendle; and you can also add Austin Meadows/Brandon Lowe in here, too, but I don’t like them as much as the first 4 names on this list given positional priority I’m giving elsewhere
Check out the full player pool below as you head into crunching mode for this slate!
$ Tier P C 1B 2B 3B SS OF High Tyler Glasnow (9.1k / 16.55) (8.8k / 29.48) ( / 16.55) Will Smith (4.8k / 11.48) (2.9k / 14.97) ( / 9.49) Max Muncy (5k / 14.08) (3.5k / 18.36) ( / 11.64) Jose Altuve (4.6k / 8.71) (3.5k / 11.36) ( / 7.20) Justin Turner (5.1k / 13.42) (3k / 17.50) ( / 11.09) Corey Seager (5.2k / 15.07) (3.9k / 19.66) ( / 12.46) Mookie Betts (5.7k / 16.40) (4.2k / 21.38) ( / 13.56) Freddie Freeman (4.8k / 10.25) (4.1k / 13.37) ( / 8.48) Ozzie Albies (4.3k / 8.50) (3.9k / 11.08) ( / 7.03) Cody Bellinger (4.9k / 11.65) (4k / 15.19) ( / 9.63) Ronald Acuna (5k / 10.83) (4.4k / 14.12) ( / 8.95) Medium Julio Urias (7.8k / 12.52) (8.6k / 22.31) ( / 12.52) Travis d'Arnaud (4.3k / 8.52) (3.1k / 11.11) ( / 7.05) Brandon Lowe (4.1k / 1.01) (3.3k / 1.32) ( / 0.83) Dansby Swanson (4k / 6.64) (3.3k / 8.66) ( / 5.49) Randy Arozarena (4.5k / 10.91) (3.5k / 14.22) ( / 9.02) Marcell Ozuna (4.2k / 9.56) (4.1k / 12.47) ( / 7.90) Low Kyle Wright (7k / 9.73) (9.4k / 17.34) ( / 9.73) Mike Zunino (3.4k / 3.40) (2.4k / 4.43) ( / 2.81) Ji-Man Choi (3.4k / 7.91) (2.4k / 10.31) ( / 6.54) Joe Wendle (3.9k / 7.22) (2.8k / 9.41) ( / 5.97) Austin Meadows (3.4k / 9.13) (3.3k / 11.91) ( / 7.55) Yandy Diaz (3.6k / 0.86) (2.7k / 1.12) ( / 0.71) Manuel Margot (3k / 8.04) (2.9k / 10.49) ( / 6.65) Joc Pederson (3.5k / 6.56) (2.5k / 8.55) ( / 5.42) Cristian Pache (2k / 2.08) (2.2k / 2.71) ( / 1.72)