DFS Analysis for Covington vs Hill for Fanduel Contests (9/19/20)
MACKENZIE DERN (FD $16) – Dern is 8-1 with her only loss coming at the hands of Amanda Ribas last year. Ribas is one of the best strawweights in the UFC and is a perfect 4-0 in the UFC. Dern is 3-1 in the UFC with two submission wins in that span. Overall she has five wins by submission and three by decision. Her opponent, Randa Markos, is 10-8 in her career and is below .500 in the UFC with a record of 6-7-1 in the octagon. Markos has four career wins by submission, but will be at a disadvantage in grappling against Dern who is a jiu-jitsu black belt.
Caveman’s advice: Markos has never finished an opponent by KO/TKO and cannot grapple on Dern’s level. She is 6-7 in decisions and is the underdog in this fight. Dern will have little trouble on her feet and if this fight goes down to the mat, Dern’s submission threat is significant. Dern runs away with this fight and has a good chance at a submission win. Dern is a solid cash play and should get good exposure in GPP contests on Fanduel this Saturday.
(At the time of this writing, Mackenzie Dern is -168 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 67.31 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
JESSICA-ROSE CLARK (FD $16) – Clark’s stock is down after losing two straight prior to this matchup against Sarah Alpar who will make her UFC debut on Saturday. Those losses were against Jessica Eye and Pannie Kianzad. Kianzad was her first fight at bantamweight and Clark is looking to rebound now that she has had some experience in the heavier weight class. She is a significant favorite in this fight and she will be aiming to make a statement in this one. Alpar is a decent prospect but has never fought against the kind of competition that Clark has. Clark should be able to piece her up for fifteen minutes and get a decision win.
Caveman’s advice: Clark makes a good cash play at a reasonable price and strong win potential. She is at her best when she can execute takedowns and averaged 88.3 FPPF over her last two wins at flyweight. She should be more comfortable at 135 lb. now that she has some experience at bantamweight and as a big favorite, I expect her to find her rhythm in this one. She should have a high floor with a ceiling of 80-90 points if she can bring high volume striking and execute takedowns. She is a top cash play, but should be used with moderation in GPP contests on Fanduel.
(At the time of this writing, Jessica-Rose Clark is -226 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 67.71 on Fantasy Cruncher.)