Welcome to the Daily MLB Rundown for FanDuel MLB DFS contests on Tuesday, September 15, 2020.
In this column, we’ll be walking you through the top pitchers and hitters (including stacks) to target for the day’s slate (9/15/2020).
Core Pitcher to Target
Jack Flaherty vs MIL – $9,800 – Flaherty hasn’t been the dominant pitcher we have grown to know him as, but he does get arguably the best matchup on the board with the Brewers. After scoring 19 runs a week ago, Milwaukee has combined to score under ten in their last five games including being no-hit by the Cubs. The Brewers are hitting only .220 as a team and have struck out at the third-highest rate in the MLB. Flaherty carries a WHIP of just 1.03 into this matchup and in Milwaukee’s current form I don’t see a world where they beat up Flaherty to diminish his fantasy line even if he gives up a run or two.
Jose Urquidy vs TEX – $6,300 – This isn’t the flashiest of plays but it is incredibly cheap which allows us to potential roster Coors Field and other priced up bats if we feel so inclined. The Texas Rangers are hitting a mere .218 as a team with a OBP of .291 – which is good enough for second to last in all of the MLB. Urquidy hasn’t done anything special of late but did manage to go six with just two earned last start out against the Athletics. The issue with Urquidy is he doesn’t give us a ton of strikeout potential, but he also should be able to limit runs and with a 70% win probability, the floor is actually pretty high here. This isn’t a lock and load can’t miss core play, but for the price, you aren’t going to get a much better total value in a pitcher and if he can find a few strikeouts you are going to hopefully be able to roster a combination of bats that otherwise wouldn’t be possible with some of the $9,000 plus priced pitchers on the slate.
GPP Pitcher to Target
Zach Davies vs LAD, $9,400 – Davies is a pure risk up against a Dodgers team with the best record in baseball and some of the best statistical batting averages as well, but Davies has been nothing short of amazing on the season. Davies holds an elite 0.96 WHIP while scoring over 41 fantasy points in each of his last four starts – them coming against some top hitting teams in Colorado, Oakland, and Houston. The strikeout numbers are also up on Davies, who has seen 30 over his last four as well. The floor has been high all season with an average of 36 fantasy points and this will be the first matchup against the Dodgers. The prowess of the matchup will keep the ownership low and while the price is a little high, we do get the advantage of playing in San Diego.
Core Stacks to Target
As most slates usually go, it will be hard to ignore the twelve run total for the Athletics and Rockies, though Senzatela hasn’t been horrible this year, he has been knocked around in his last two starts, giving up a combined 13 hits and six runs. On the other side, Sean Manaea comes in on a different trajectory, having turned his season around and dropping his ERA finally under five. Manaea allowed one earned against the Astros in his last start, making it through seven. While Manaea may have turned his season around, we all know how Coors can go. I think this is a sneaky pitching matchup in which each can have a good start, so I don’t necessarily think we need to over-expose ourselves to either.
The Angels and their strong core of right-handed hitters is going to be a target for me against Madison Bumgarner. Bumgarner is far from the pitcher we grew to know as he has been knocked around in some short starts as of late. He allowed only two earned over five against the Dodgers but did allow seven hits and two walks while only striking out two. The strikeout numbers are massively down as he only has six over his last 11 innings pitched. Over his career, righties have hit Bumgarner around .30 points higher than lefties, at around .240 but in 2020 RHH are hitting .291 against him with 10 home runs in just 79 at-bats. That is a home run to a right-handed hitter every 7.9 at-bats. Fire up, Rendon and Trout with some Fletcher and Adell.
The Royals come in as a stack that will be low owned while also very cheap as they take on Matt Boyd and the Tigers. Boyd appeared to be on a bounce-back trail after back to back 40 fantasy point outings but lost it again against soft-hitting Milwaukee when he allowed seven earned and eight hits over three innings. It has been a tale of two pitchers for Boyd, but we should be taking the risk at this point that we are going to get the bad version of him in some GPP lineups as when he has been bad, he has been seven earned against bad. Right-handed hitters are hitting a wacky .336 against Boyd this year and have 12 home runs against him in just 149 at-bats. The Royals aren’t a team we are going to target frequently, though Whit Merrifield does have four hits over his last two games, and at just $3,300 is the perfect start to a RH stack against Boyd. After Merrifield, Hunter Dozier provides some power as well as Maikel Franco. This team only carries a 4.1 team total, so Vegas is liking Boyd more than Kansas City, but if you are targeting top-tier pitching on this Tuesday, then the Royals make for an interesting small or large stack with home run upside.