Welcome to the Daily MLB Rundown for DraftKings contests on Tuesday, September 15, 2020.
After an ugly slate yesterday we are back with a huge 12 game slate tonight. The best part of this slate is that none of the 12 games also look to have weather concerns.
Approach to Pitching
We have plenty of pitching options on this large slate and I wanted to focus on a pitcher in each salary range for tonight’s slate.
Expensive Tier: Carlos Carrasco ($10,500)- I know Yu Darvish is on this slate and is in fact facing off against Carrasco but for a little less in salary, I would rather have Carrasco than Darvish. Carrasco has been lights out in his past three starts. In those starts, Carrasco has pitched at least six innings in each game, has allowed a total of two runs, has struck out at least six batters in each game and has produced at least 20 fantasy points in each of those games. Carrasco is not just pitching extremely well right now but the Cubs are actually a team that I like to pick on with pitchers as while they do have power in their lineup they are also a high strikeout team. This season the Cubs have a team K rate of 26.3% against right-handed pitching which is the third-highest in the majors.
Mid Tier: Tyler Anderson ($7,300)- Anderson is a borderline value play and not the safest play on the slate as he is very inconsistent but the match-up against the Mariners is just too good for me to pass up. The Mariners even with having a solid day at the plate yesterday are one of the best possible match-ups for left-handed pitching there is. This season the M’s have the second-lowest team wOBA, tenth-lowest team ISO, and fourth-highest team K rate against left-handed pitching. Anderson also dominated Seattle in his last start. In that start, Anderson pitched six shutout innings while striking out four on his way to 23.1 fantasy points.
Value Tier: Deivi Garcia ($6,800)- I don’t love the match-up against the Blue Jays who are one of the better hitting teams in the majors but at his salary, I am having a hard time not rostering Garcia. Garcia has just been excellent so far in his young career. In his three career starts, Garcia has pitched at least six innings in two of his three starts, has allowed two runs or less in two of his three starts, and has struck out at least six batters in each of his starts. Garcia has at least 23 fantasy points in all but one of his starts. One of those two starts where Garcia was able to produce over 23 fantasy points also did come against the Blue Jays.
Approach to Hitting
Before I get into the stacks I like I want to talk about DJ Stewart. Stewart’s salary of $2,400 is an absolute joke as he is destroying the ball. Stewart has a home run in six of his past nine games and a total of seven home runs in that time frame. Stewart is slashing .394/.444/1.061 with an ISO of .667, and a wOBA of .599. Stewart has at least 19 fantasy points in each of those six games he has hit a home run. Stewart is not just crushing the ball but he is also facing a pitcher that struggles with left-handed-hitting in Huascar Ynoa. In his young career, Ynoa is allowing lefties to slash .323/.463/.452 with a .395 wOBA and a 41.4% hard-hit rate. I have been locking Stewart in all of my lineups for the past week and will be doing so tonight.
Moving on to stacks the first thing we have to decide is what to do with Coors Field as it is on the slate. I personally tend to be underweight on Coors on large slates like this and plan on doing the same at least on the Rockies side of the game. It is going to be hard for me to be underweight on the A’s however as the match-up with Antonio Senzatela is too good for me to pass up. In his career at Coors Field, Senzatela has an ERA of 5.22, an HR/9 rate of 1.3, and a WHIP of 1.46. Senzatela is allowing hitters to slash .284/.341/.483 with a .347 wOBA and a 33.2% hard-hit rate during those games.
One of the reasons I feel comfortable being underweight or right at the field at Coors tonight is the number of teams that you can pivot to on this slate. There are five other teams with a projected run total over five as of this writing and several other teams that are likely to be there by the afternoon. Out of these teams, my two favorites are the Angels who are likely to be the most popular team outside of Coors, and the Mets who likely will be in the single-digit ownership wise.
Let’s start with the Angels and why I love them so much despite them likely being chalk. The reason I am so high on the Angels has to do with their match-up against Madison Bumgarner who has been well a bum this season. In his six starts, Bumgarner has a FIP of 9.05, a WHIP of 1.56, and a K rate of just 13.7%. Now, Bumgarner has been a lot better since his return to the D-Backs lineup after almost a month off allowing just two runs in each of those two starts but his underlying numbers say he was extremely lucky in those starts. Bumgarner still had a FIP over eight in both of those starts and still allowed multiple home runs in each of those games and in fact has allowed at least two home runs in four straight starts.
The Mets stand out to me due to their match-up against Jake Arrieta. Arrieta is another pitcher like Bumgarner who is way past his prime. This season, Arrieta has an ERA of 5.54, an HR/9 rate of 1.15, and a WHIP of 1.49. Arrieta has struggled against hitters from both sides of the plate this season but has struggled the most against left-handed hitting the past couple of seasons and that is why I really like the Mets as they are a lefty-heavy team. Since the start of last season, Arrieta has allowed lefties to slash .308/.381/.526 with a .378 wOBA, and a 38.4% hard-hit rate.
Good luck with your contests today & if you are looking for some more players to include in your player pool – check out today’s Cheat Sheets!