Welcome to the Daily MLB Rundown for DraftKings contests on Monday, September 14, 2020.
The other main sites have opted for a small main slate that only includes the three-night games that are not double-headers but not DraftKings. DraftKings has put the four early games on the main slate which includes three double-header games in PIT-CIN, STL-MIL, and OAK-SEA. I personally hate double-headers this season with the seven-inning rule but with the games on the slate, there is not much we can do but live with it.
Approach to Pitching
The one good thing I can say about DK’s decision is adding in the early games does give us some better pitching options. In fact, it gives us my top pitching option on this slate and a player that I am all in on today in Trevor Bauer ($10,800). Bauer is the most expensive pitcher on this slate but should be worth every cent you spend on him as he has been excellent all season long. Bauer has pitched at least six innings in all but one of his eight starts this season has an ERA of 1.74, a WHIP of 0.79, and a 36.0% K rate. Those numbers are some downright amazing numbers. If you look at just his fantasy production this season you will also see some amazing numbers as Bauer has at least 35 fantasy points in five of his eight starts this season. Bauer has not just been destroying everything in his path this season but the Pirates are also a team that you should know we like to target right-handed pitchers against. This season the Pirates rank dead last in team ISO and team wOBA against righties while also having a high K rate of 24.6%. The seven-inning game could also play into our advantage with Bauer as he would only need to pitch seven innings for the complete game bonus.
Outside of Bauer, I really only like one other pitcher on this slate and will be also going all-in on this pitcher. The pitcher besides Bauer I am going all-in on is Jesus Luzardo ($8,300). There are a couple of reasons why I love Luzardo today. The first is the fact that he has been pitching really well as of late. In his past four starts, Luzardo has pitched at least six innings with seven strikeouts in three of the games. Luzardo has at least 17 fantasy points in each of those three games. Another reason I love Luzardo today is the match-up against the Mariners who don’t hit left-handed pitching well at all. This season the Mariners rank dead last in team ISO and team wOBA while having the fifth-highest team K rate against left-handed pitching this season.
Approach to Hitting
With going all-in on two pitchers you would think that there would be lots of teams that I want to stack on this slate but that is just not the case. I am not really interested in the teams from the double-header games as the loss of two innings is actually huge as you are looking at a minimum of one in not more at-bats lost for each player. The lost at-bats also would normally be coming against a reliever and I personally want as many at-bats as possible against most teams bullpens. That leaves the three-night games as places to look for stacks but I don’t have much interest in the Dodgers-Padres game as while I don’t want to target Clayton Kershaw or Dinelson Lamet as both the Padres and Dodgers have two of the best offenses in the majors I don’t want to target the offenses either as both Kershaw and Lamet are elite pitchers. The White Sox are also a team that I normally would stack but are okay not having in my lineups tonight as they take on Jose Berrios who is a solid pitcher. That leaves a total of three teams that I want to stack on this slate in the Twins, Braves, and Orioles. If I only had to pick one of those teams to stack it is going to be the Braves. The Braves rank first in team wOBA and third in team ISO against right-handed pitching this season and face a right-handed pitcher in Jorge Lopez who has not been very good. In his 24 innings pitched this season Lopez has an ERA of 6.38, an HR/9 rate of 1.13, and a WHIP of 1.33. While 24 innings is not much of a sample size if you look at his career numbers you will also see Lopez is bad as he is allowing hitters to slash .284/.351/.474 with a .349 wOBA and a 39.6% hard-hit rate. The only negative thing I can say about the Braves today is that they are going to be uber chalk as they have the highest projected run total on this slate at 5.9.