Welcome to the Daily MLB Rundown for FanDuel MLB DFS contests on Sunday, September 13, 2020.
In this column, we’ll be walking you through the top pitchers and hitters (including stacks) to target for the day’s slate (9/13/2020).
With 11 games on the Sunday main slate, we have a nice variety of game totals and arm quality to work with here. Coors is very much in play once again here, and there are also some nice values in the hitting department with some cheaper stacks being quite attractive.
Core Pitcher to Target
Despite having the likes of Max Scherzer, Lance Lynn and Triston McKenzie on the board here at $9,000+, I don’t quite see it being the kind of day that you need to spend up to that level. There are 3 other names with win probabilities over 55% and implied opponent totals of 3.75 runs or less. So while we do have quality at the top to consider, the likes of Coors and other expensive teams for hitting exposure makes it quite attractive to pivot down a little bit. I can understand if you are tempted to go up to Scherzer or even McKenzie in 5-10% of your GPP builds, but you’ll definitely be hampering your ability to get the likes of WAS, LAA and COL bats active which are going to be pretty optimal in some capacity. Especially if Scherzer is your choice.
That makes Charlie Morton the guy for me today if you’re looking for one guy with a solid floor and ceiling combination at a great price ($7,500). He was back up to 5 innings in his last start after being eased back into things from a pitch count perspective the previous 2 outings, and has a very good recent track record against the Red Sox. Not to mention they’re now in more of a rebuilding phase and a shell of their former selves as a group. He still has a 9.2 K/9 on the year and very solid whiff/chase metrics that should lead us to believe a 6 inning, 6 K kind of day (with nice Vegas metrics: 65% win% and 3.34 opponent total) is within reach.
GPP Pitchers to Target
Michael Pineda ($8,200) and Frankie Montas ($6,800) are the pivot-up and pivot-down options from Morton that I want in my GPP player pool as well. Pineda’s looked really sharp in his previous 2 starts (13 IP, 12 Ks, 4 ER) and gets a CLE group who ranks 25th in the league this year in wRC+ against RHP – not to mention a near 28% K% split in the match-up, too.
Montas faces the Rangers who are even softer against righties (29th in the league with a 66 wRC+ in the split) and third-worst ISO (.139). They don’t have as high of a K% as Cleveland does, but their weakness as a group against more of a contact-oriented SP like Montas right now is certainly exploitable. Montas was solid against HOU in his last start after missing time, and could surprise with 6-7 quality innings here in a good situation and great price.
Core Stacks to Target
From a hitting standpoint, I’m definitely into having some pieces of COL and LAA here.
For COL, it’s all about Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story as a core group – especially if you’re spending under $8,500 on your SP (which you should be strongly considering here). I’m not opposed to some Kevin Pillar or Matt Kemp if you want to go deeper than 2-3 for exposure, but against a LHP I’m not looking to go too crazy. I don’t see an all-out Coors game stack being necessary, but Story and Arenado are premium pieces on this slate.
On the LAA side against Ryan Castellani, Jared Walsh is a heck of a bargain for the price ($2,700) as the algo’s really haven’t caught up yet to how white hot he’s been of late. He has homers in 4 straight games and is likely to hit out of the 2 spot once again here. Justin Upton and Andrelton Simmons are intriguing values as well, with Mike Trout/Anthony Rendon being plus-plus plays as they always are. Especially in a great hitting environment like Colorado where a near 7.0 team total is the reality here.
Both of these teams should have a decent level of ownership on the slate, and I’m once again interested in riding the Royals’ value train as a nice complement to the Coors situation.
Adalberto Mondesi has been about as hot as anyone in the majors of late, and has a nice 9 game hit streak going right now – not to mention a huge Saturday as well. Add in the green light on the bases and the 4 HRs he’s also hit in that span, and you can see why now is a great time to get him active for just $2,800 (ridiculously underpriced). For a SS of his production level, he’s a fantastic option here again, and I don’t mind near 100% of your lineups to have exposure to him, even if you’re not stacking the Royals.
The other 2 names that I’d prioritize from this group today are Edward Olivares who is hitting well for the price these days, and Kelvin Gutierrez who was activated for the first time in 2020 yesterday, and is only $2,000 out of the 3B spot. He should be back in the 7 hole again today and has flashed some promise in his short time at the major league level thus far. If you’re looking for value, I’m intrigued here – especially as a part of a deeper KC stack.
The Yanks should be fairly popular against a lefty with a near 7.00 ERA this year, and for fairly good reason. DJ LeMahieu (138 wRC+), Luke Voit (131 wRC+), Gleyber Torres (122 wRC+) and Clint Frazier (119 wRC+) are all plus options in the split (wRC+ metrics date back to the start of 2019). Voit and LeMahieu are both $3,900, but Frazier, Torres and Aaron Hicks (another one that I like who should hit in the 3 spot) are all $3,300 and under (very solid values). There’s a lot to like with this 5 man group, and the value is actually pretty decent – especially if going their route instead of Coors.