DFS Analysis for Waterson vs Hill in Las Vegas

The UFC is back for more fight action from Las Vegas. There has been a bit of a shake up at the last minute and the new matchups provide the opportunity for great value on Saturday. Here are two of my top plays based on value for DFS contests on DraftKings.

ALEXANDR ROMANOV (DK $8,700) – The UFC added this fight late in the week to fill out their card on Saturday. Romanov was scheduled to fight in the previous event but the fight was cancelled and he is now set to fight fellow UFC newcomer, Roque Martinez. Romanov was ready to go a week ago and should be more prepared to fight than Martinez who was called up just a few days ago. He is the second biggest favorite of the event and has the best odds to finish his opponent at -210 to win inside the distance. Romanov is a perfect 11-0 as a professional with eleven finishes. He is also a diverse fighter with five wins by KO/TKO and six wins by submission. This fight figures to be a short one with both fighters having several first round finishes to their credit. Current odds make this fight a -135 favorite to end before the halfway point of the second round.

Caveman’s advice: This fight promises to deliver heavyweights striking with power and chasing quick finishes. Both fighters can finish on their feet as well as by submission. Romanov has the edge here, however, and is not only the more prepared of the two, but he is the quicker fighter with a four inch height advantage and a three inch reach advantage. In multi-entry contests, it may be wise to play both sides of this one, but Romanov should get the lion’s share of lineups. He has the best potential of any fighter to put up a big score and is priced well below $9K in salary. He should be used heavily in all formats on DraftKings.

(At the time of this writing, Alexandr Romanov is -403 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 77.79 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

ROOSEVELT ROBERTS (DK $8,400) – Roberts was originally slated to fight Matt Frevola, but an injury forced Frevola out and now Kevin Croom has been chosen as his replacement at the last minute. This is a major downgrade in opponent for Roberts who goes from being a slight favorite to the biggest favorite on Saturday. Croom will be making his UFC debut, but has a long fight history with a record of 21-12 as a professional. Roberts has a much shorter fight history with a record of 10-2 (4-2 in the UFC). He is coming off a submission loss to Jim Miller as the favorite in that fight, and will be looking to make a statement against Croom. He is currently a -140 favorite to finish this fight inside the distance. In his ten victories to date, he has eight finishes with three wins by KO/TKO and five wins by submission.

Caveman’s advice: This is a terrible position for Croom who will make his UFC debut with less than 24 hours notice. He will face a fighter with something to prove in Roberts. Roberts already has two submission wins in the UFC and will be looking to make it a third on Saturday. He has a three inch height advantage and should be able to touch up Croom at will. If Croom tries to shoot for a takedown, Roberts’ guillotine submissions are top notch. I expect this fight to end before the third round with Roberts scoring a submission win. At Roberts’ salary, he should be able to bring big value to his price tag. He is a top play for both cash and GPP lineups on Saturday.

(At the time of this writing, Roosevelt Roberts is -408 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 74.73 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

That’s all for this week. Good luck with your lineups!

About Rob

Since getting out of the casino business, Rob has been playing DFS regularly with a focus on MMA and the NFL. He now lives in Denver, CO.

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