Fight Study – August 15, 2020
For the second time in UFC 252, a strawweight bout takes center stage featuring Virna Jandiroba and Felice Herrig. Jandiroba is a top notch grappler and Herrig is the superior striker. The oddsmakers have made Jandiroba the biggest favorite of the evening and she will command the greater amount of fantasy dollars on both DraftKings and Fanduel. DraftKings has set her price tag at $9,000 and Herrig’s at $7,200, while Fanduel makes these fighters available for $17 and $10 respectively. This fight is scheduled for three rounds of MMA action and the oddsmakers predict this fight will go the full fifteen minutes, making this bout a -195 favorite to go the distance.
The Brazilian, Jandiroba, is 15-1, losing only to Carla Esparza in her sixteen fight career. Of her fifteen victories, twelve of them have come by submission and three by decision. Her opponent’s grappling is good, but not on Jandiroba’s level and fight fans can expect her to take this fight to the ground. If she can take Herrig’s back, expect for her finish this fight as she has seven finishes by rear-naked choke. She scores takedowns at a rate of 1.41 per five minutes in the octagon. If she can repeat these numbers against Herrig, her chances of winning are high. Once in Jandiroba’s grip, few strawweights can contend with her top level grappling.
Clearly, the key for Herrig will be to keep this fight upright. In a strictly kickboxing contest, she will have the edge, but Jandiroba will do her best to make sure this fight won’t play out on their feet. Herrig has a very respectable takedown defense rate of 76%, and if she can manage to keep Jandiroba from executing takedowns early in rounds, she may be able to extend this fight. Even if this fight plays out entirely on their feet, there can be little expectation that Herrig can find a KO/TKO, however, as in 24 career fights she has only one victory by TKO dating back to 2011. The oddsmakers make her a big underdog to do this at +1100 to win by KO/TKO. Herrig’s goal should be to reach a decision and hope that the fight doesn’t play out for an extended amount of time with her opponent in dominating grappling positions.
Look for Herrig to play defensively throughout this fight. She will try to keep this fight at a distance where Jandiroba won’t have an easy time taking her down. The more time this fight plays out with punches and kicks, the better chance she will have at victory. Jandiroba’s game plan will be entirely opposite. She will want to close the distance and take away Herrig’s striking advantage. If she can bring this fight down early in rounds, she will have the opportunity to attempt submissions and the time in which to finish them. The longer this fight plays out on the mat, the better chance she will have in a decision as well. Although the betting lines don’t expect a finish in this fight, if Jandiroba can execute takedowns with time to work, she has a very good chance to upset those odds.
For DFS contests, Jandiroba will need to finish Herrig in the first round to bring good value to her salary. A second or third round submission will score well for cash lineups, but may not earn her a big enough score for 150-max contests. Given Fanduel’s penchant for grapplers with their scoring system, I prefer Jandiroba on that platform. She should play well on either platform for cash contests. I would suggest taking a pass on Herrig on all platforms and formats. She doesn’t have enough chance to win and even in victory she doesn’t figure to score well in what should be a defensive game plan. The best case DFS scenario for this fight is Jandiroba by first round submission, but that will not be an easy task against Herrig who has yet to be submitted in her career. For this reason take a cautious approach to playing Jandiroba as her high salary will lead to low value outside of a first round finish.
For more Fight Study, be sure to keep your eye on FantasyCruncher.com leading up to UFC 252 on August 15.
UFC 252: FIGHT #7, Jandiroba vs Herrig
For Fight Study on UFC 252: FIGHT #6, Pichel vs Miller, click HERE.
For Fight Study on UFC 252: FIGHT #8, Chavez vs Brown, click HERE.