The UFC Returns to Las Vegas for Fight Night
The UFC says goodbye for now to Abu Dhabi and goes back to the Apex facility in Las Vegas. This event has been tumultuous with several fighters dropping out and last minute replacements joining in on the action. I have selected two of my favorite plays for Saturday’s contests on DraftKings.
KEVIN HOLLAND (DK $8,900) – In his six UFC fights to date, Holland is 4-2 and is 4-1 as a favorite. He goes into Saturday’s fight against Trevin Giles as a better than 2 to 1 favorite. In Holland’s four victories, he has scored 100+ points in half of them, including his last fight where he scored 107.0 in a TKO victory over Anthony Hernandez just 39 seconds into the fight. He has the fourth highest average of all fighters in this event and only Edmen Shahbazyan has better odds to finish his opponent inside the distance. In seventeen career victories, Holland has fourteen finishes with eight wins by KO/TKO and six by submission.
Caveman’s advice: Holland is a significant favorite over Giles and has a high ceiling in this matchup. Since 2017, Giles has only one win by split decision and two losses. Holland is +130 to win inside the distance and in his two finishes in the UFC he is averaging 131.3 FPPF. Holland should play very well in cash lineups and should get good exposure in GPP contests. In multi-entry contests, he should get 40-60% exposure on Saturday.
(At the time of this writing, Kevin Holland is -218 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 66.78 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
JAMALL EMMERS (DK $7,800) – Emmers was priced to fight as the underdog against Timur Valiev, but is now a heavy favorite against last minute replacement, Vince Cachero. Cachero was slated as the replacement less than 48 hours prior to Saturday’s fight and will be stepping up from 135 lb. to make his UFC debut in the 145 lb. featherweight division. Cachero is 1-2 over his last three fights in the LFA. Emmers is 0-1 in the UFC but had been on a four fight win streak prior to losing his octagon debut in a split decision to Giga Chikadze. Emmers also has the distinction to be the only fighter to defeat Cory Sandhagen until Aljamain Sterling defeated him in June of this year.
Caveman’s advice: Emmers looks to be the superior fighter in this matchup and will have several advantages going into Saturday’s fight as Cachero is stepping up to featherweight as a last minute replacement. Current odds make Emmers the biggest favorite of the entire night. At a below average salary, Emmers is a great play with little downside. He should be a top cash play and at +135 to win inside the distance, he has the necessary scoring potential in GPP contests as well. Give him a healthy amount of exposure in the 60-80% range.
(At the time of this writing, Jamall Emmers is -345 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 74.96 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
That’s all for this week. Good luck with your lineups!