MMA ON FANDUEL – UFC ON ESPN 14: WHITTAKER VS TILL (July 25, 2020)

Fight Island Once Again Hosts UFC Action in Abu Dhabi


The UFC will give another go of things at Fight Island before returning to Las Vegas and the UFC Apex. I have selected two of my top plays for DFS contests on Fanduel for Saturday’s fights in Abu Dhabi.

TOM ASPINALL (FD $17) – Aspinall will make his UFC debut on Saturday in the heavyweight division against Jake Collier. This will be Collier’s first fight as a heavyweight. Collier has fought twice in the light heavyweight division, but debuted in the UFC as a middleweight, going 2-2 in that division. The middleweight division tops out at 185 lb. Collier weighed in Friday at 265 lb. That’s an 80 lb. difference and he looks it. Even worse for Collier is the fact that his last fight was in November of 2017. Aspinall is a top notch boxer (he has a 1-0 record as a professional boxer) with fast hands. He is 7-2 as a professional and all seven wins were first round finishes. He has two wins by submission and five by KO/TKO. He has lost once by submission and lost once by disqualification for an illegal elbow.

Caveman’s advice: Aspinall is a ferocious finisher in MMA and he will be up against a fighter who has been away from the octagon for over two and a half years. In those two and a half years, it looks as if Collier’s main focus has been eating. He will be fighting nearly 80 lb. heavier than in his first UFC fight. Current odds make Aspinall a -125 favorite to finish Collier inside the distance, and he very likely should be a bigger favorite than that. At just $17 in salary, Aspinall is a steal and he should manage to finish this one early.

(At the time of this writing, Tom Aspinall is -220 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 68.89 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

MIKE GRUNDY (FD $12) – Grundy made his UFC debut in March of last year. He needed less than two rounds to finish Nad Narimani by TKO. It was the first win by KO/TKO for the English submission specialist. He has a career record of 12-1 with eight of his twelve wins coming by submission. His only loss came over five years ago by a triangle choke. He has never been knocked out in thirteen professional MMA fights. He will face Russia’s Movsar Evloev who is undefeated in a dozen professional fights to date and is 2-0 in the UFC. This fight is a -235 favorite to go the distance.

Caveman’s advice: As an underdog, Grundy has an excellent record and a long history of finishing opponents. He may not be a strong candidate for cash lineups, but his upside in GPP contests is significant. If this fight goes to the ground, Grundy should have the upper hand in grappling exchanges and therefore will pose a threat to score a submission. For a fighter at this price, his ceiling is too high to ignore. Fanduel scoring favors fighters who attempt submissions and in his only UFC contest so far, Grundy scored 115.8 points as an underdog. Give him a good number of lineups in multi-entry contests based solely on his upside and low salary.

(At the time of this writing, Mike Grundy is +162 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 47.11 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

That’s all for this week. Good luck with your lineups!

About Rob

Since getting out of the casino business, Rob has been playing DFS regularly with a focus on MMA and ESPORTS. He now lives in Denver, CO.

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