UFC ON FANDUEL – UFC ON ESPN 12: POIRIER VS HOOKER (June 27, 2020)

More Fight Action in Vegas for Poirier vs Hooker (6/27/20)


Fight Island is coming, but in the meantime, the UFC goes back to Vegas for fights in The Apex. I have picked two of my favorite plays for Saturday’s contests on Fanduel, and I have also identified one fighter who is simply overpriced.

 

PRICED TO PLAY

SEAN WOODSON (FD $18) – Woodson is a perfect 7-0 in his career and he is looking for his second consecutive win in the octagon since getting his UFC contract following his KO of Terrance McKinney in Dana White’s Contender Series. In his UFC debut, Woodson manhandled Kyle Bochniak, landing 111 significant strikes and scoring 14 takedown defenses for a total of 128.6 fantasy points in a win by unanimous decision last October. He is the biggest favorite of the evening by a wide margin. His opponent, Julian Erosa, is 0-3 in the UFC and has lasted until the final bell only once in that span. Current odds make Woodson a -155 favorite to finish this fight inside the distance.

Caveman’s advice: Woodson is underpriced on Fanduel and presents good value as the event’s biggest favorite while being priced less than five other fighters. He is also favored to earn an early finish bonus. He is my top cash play on Saturday and he should get a fair number of lineups in multi-entry contests as well. Priced to go, Woodson should get 40-60% exposure for his fight against Erosa on Saturday.

(At the time of this writing, Sean Woodson is -495 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 86.45 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

KAY HANSEN (FD $15) – Hansen will be making her UFC debut against fellow newcomer, Jinh Yu Frey, on Saturday. Hansen is 6-3 as a professional and in her six victories, she has finished her opponent five times with two wins by KO/TKO and three wins by submission. She turns 21 years old this summer, and is fourteen years younger than her opponent. Yet, this will be the tenth fight for the Invicta veteran. She brings finishing power to the strawweight division and is the biggest favorite among fighters with a below average price tag on Fanduel.

Caveman’s advice: Hansen’s finishing rate is the whole story here. It is not often that strawweights have a finishing record of this caliber. She is a young fighter making her debut in the UFC, but her much older opponent is also making her debut. The oddsmakers figure Hansen to be the better fighter in this matchup and I see no reason to question this. She can finish with her striking as well as by submission and her upside is high for a fighter with a bottom half salary. At her price, give her 25-40% exposure in multi-entry contests on Saturday.

(At the time of this writing, Kay Hansen is -169 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 67.31 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

 

OVERPRICED

JORDAN GRIFFIN (FD $19) – Griffin is tied for the third highest salary on Fanduel. His last time out, he scored 99.0 fantasy points in a second round submission of T.J. Brown in February of this year. In his two previous trips to the octagon, he lost by decision both times. Despite his high salary, Griffin is the underdog in this fight against Youssef Zalal, who is 1-0 in the UFC. Both fighters have excellent ground games with a combined 14 submission wins between them. Current odds make this fight a -145 favorite to go to a decision.

Caveman’s advice: Griffin is way overpriced on Fanduel. If you like Griffin as a play, consider playing him on DraftKings where he is priced much lower at 10th overall in salary. He does have some potential to score big if he can submit his opponent, but he risks being submitted himself against a grappler with Zalal’s submission skills. Having never reached 100 points in scoring and with a 1-2 record in the UFC, I would use Griffin mimimally in DFS contests at such a high salary.

(At the time of this writing, Jordan Griffin is +102 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 54.77 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

That’s all for this week. Good luck with your lineups!

About Rob

Since getting out of the casino business, Rob has been playing DFS regularly with a focus on MMA and ESPORTS. He now lives in Denver, CO.

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