More UFC Action in Las Vegas for Blaydes vs Volkov (6/20/20)
The UFC’s Apex is once again host for more fights on Saturday. I have picked some of my favorite underdog plays for Saturday’s contests on Fanduel. I have also identified a favorite that I am looking to fade for DFS contests this weekend.
LAUREN MURPHY (FD $13) – Since losing her first two fights in the UFC, Lauren Murphy is 4-2 over her last six fights including a win over Andrea Lee her last time out. She is a slight underdog on Saturday. Murphy has played the role of underdog in her last four fights. She won three of those fights. She has once eclipsed the century mark in the octagon, scoring 119.0 points in a TKO of Kelly Faszholz. She is currently on a two fight win streak where she scored 82.4 and 89.0 points as an underdog in both. Fanduel makes her the 19th highest salary out of 24 fighters on Saturday. Her opponent, Roxanne Modafferi, is 2-2 in her last four fights in the octagon.
Caveman’s advice: Murphy comes in as one of the smallest dogs of this event, yet her salary is well below average. She has a good chance at upsetting here and has demonstrated decent scoring over her last two fights, winning both as the betting underdog. Her ceiling isn’t as high as I’d like for GPP play and she is not a good candidate for MVP, but at her salary she is a decent cash play and she deserves a fair number of lineups in multi-entry contests for her value at just $13 on Fanduel.
(At the time of this writing, Lauren Murphy is -105 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 57.42 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
TECIA TORRES (FD $11) – Over her last eight fights, Tecia Torres is a disappointing 3-5 inside the octagon. Despite her unimpressive win percentage over this streak, the quality of her losses are so high, she deserves further consideration. Those five losses came to the best of strawweight division, including current champ Weili Zhang, and former champions Joanna Jedrzejczyk, Rose Namajunas and Jessica Andrade. She took all four champs/former champs the distance. In this same span, she has wins over Michelle Waterson, Juliana Lima and Bec Rawlings, averaging 86.2 FPPF in her wins. She is the lowest priced fighter of the evening for her matchup against Brianna Van Buren who scored 84.2 points in her only UFC fight to date.
Caveman’s advice: Torres is not going to make my recommended list for cash play, but she is a solid play for GPP contests for her experience against the best of best. Van Buren cannot be considered to be a fighter of champion caliber at this point, and Torres will not be in over her head here. I like her chances to upset and love her bargain salary. She is a risky play, but at her price, the risk is a reasonable one. Give her a moderate number of lineups in multi-entry contests on Saturday.
(At the time of this writing, Tecia Torres is +177 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 49.08 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
FAVORITE TO FADE
RAQUEL PENNINGTON (FD $17) – Since she scored 119.6 points in her submission of Jessica Andrade in September of 2015, Pennington has scored no more than 78.8 points in seven fights. Over those seven fights, she is 4-3 losing only to Holy Holm, Germaine de Randamie and Amanda Nunes. She has only lost to the best fighters in the bantamweight division, but her scoring in wins is a disappointing 68.95 FPPF over that span. She is tied for the sixth highest salary on Fanduel for her fight against Marion Reneau on Saturday. Reneau is 5-4-1 in the UFC with four of her five wins coming inside the distance.
Caveman’s advice: Pennington is facing a dangerous fighter in Reneau who has two wins by KO/TKO as well as two by submission in ten fights inside the octagon. In addition to this, her scoring even in wins leaves much to be desired. Since 2015 she has not reached 80 fantasy points in any fight. At her salary, she is an easy fade for me on Saturday.
(At the time of this writing, Raquel Pennington is -182 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 65.02 on Fantasy Cruncher.)