The UFC Returns to Las Vegas for Blaydes vs Volkov (6/20/20)
Before heading to Fight Island, the UFC brings more fight action from the Apex facility in Vegas. For DFS contests on DraftKings, I have selected a few of my favorite value plays and one fighter who DFS players may want to fade in GPP contests on Saturday.
SHANE BURGOS (DK $8,700) – Of all fighters on Saturday, only Frank Camacho throws strikes at a higher pace than Shane Burgos and no one lands at a higher rate. To date, Burgos is landing 35.4 significant strikes per round. In fourteen professional fights, he has lost just once to one of the best featherweight strikers in Calvin Kattar. His opponent, Josh Emmett, lands at much slower rate, with an average of 18.2 significant strikes per round. In Burgos’ thirteen victories, he has finished ten of them with five wins by KO/TKO and five wins by submission. In the UFC, he is 5-1 with 60% of his wins coming inside the distance. This fight is currently a -180 favorite to end prior to the final bell.
Caveman’s advice: Josh Emmett is a tough opponent, but in a fight that likely to feature a great deal of striking, Shane Burgos is clearly the better striker. He lands at a very high rate and is likely to score well whether or not he is able to finish Emmett. Over his last five fights, Burgos is 4-1 and is averaging 105.5 FPPF in his wins during that span. With a salary well below $9K he is a great value for DFS contests and should get heavy play. Give him 40-50% exposure in multi-entry contests and he is a top five play for cash as well.
(At the time of this writing, Shane Burgos is -146 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 61.73 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
GILLIAN ROBERTSON (DK $8,300) – Gillian Robertson has yet to see the third round inside the octagon. She is 4-2 in the UFC and her longest fight to date lasted just over nine minutes. In the UFC, she has twice been finished in the first round and she also has three wins by submission and one by TKO. She faces Cortney Casey who is the better striker of the two, but Robertson maintains the advantage in grappling. Robertson only managed to score an average of 11.3 FPPF in two losses but in her four wins she is averaging 108.4 FPPF. This fight is currently a slight -125 favorite to go the distance, but would not surprise at all to reach an early conclusion.
Caveman’s advice: With a 100% finish rate in the octagon, Gillian Robertson is a great play for multi-entry contests on DraftKings on Saturday. Her salary is just above average and she has an impressive resume with wins over Hannah Cifers, Molly McCann, Emily Whitmire and Veronica Macedo. She will be at a disadvantage in both height and reach, but her game plan will be to take this fight to the mat where she has five career submissions as a professional. She is a boom or bust play and doesn’t get my recommendation for cash play, but she should get 25-35% exposure in multi-entry contests on Saturday.
(At the time of this writing, Gillian Robertson is -119 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 59.44 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
BELAL MUHAMMAD (DK $8,900) – If you’re looking for consistency, Belal Muhammad is your fighter. In his last seven fights he is 6-1 with all six wins scoring between 81.5 and 85.5 fantasy points. In that span, he twice carried a salary above $8,800 and he won both fights scoring 83.0 and 85.5 points. During this same span, he has one win by submission with the other six fights being decided by the judges’ scorecards. This fight is currently a -180 favorite to reach a decision and Muhammad is +460 to finish his opponent, Lyman Good, inside the distance. As a professional, Muhammad is 16-3 with eleven of his wins coming by decision.
Caveman’s advice: Consistency is usually a good thing, especially when it refers to winning. Belal Muhammad is a solid cash play for DFS contests on Saturday, but at his salary, his ceiling for scoring needs to be higher to earn much play. He has demonstrated a good potential to score in the 80’s but has yet to demonstrate potential to score enough to make him a top GPP play. His opponent is a dangerous striker with eleven career wins by KO/TKO and just one loss by submission. Muhammad won’t want to trade in the pocket with Good and his submission potential is lower than his chances of being knocked out. This fight calls for Muhammad’s typical game managing pace and figures to have a typical fantasy outcome of scoring in the low 80’s for Muhammad. Consider fading him in multi-entry contests on Saturday.
(At the time of this writing, Belal Muhammad is -124 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 59.65 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
That’s all for this week. Good luck with your lineups!