Call of Duty: A Beginner’s Guide to DFS on DraftKings – 5/22/20
It’s been two weeks since the last Call of Duty League event and I am looking forward to getting back to the virtual battlefield. Since then, I’ve added a brand new desk to my war room and I have to admit, I’m pretty happy with it. It’s funny how a change like that can energize a person. I find myself looking for reasons to get in front of my computer. With that in mind, I’ll be making the move from the contests I played previously and stepping things up a bit.
In previous editions of the Level Novice articles for Call of Duty League, I identified a few rules by which to construct lineups. I had been focusing on low stakes 20-max contests for DraftKings. For this weekend’s contests, I will be taking a different approach and looking to construct lineups for mass multi-entry contests. Specifically, I will be playing $0.50 lineups for the COD $4K mini-MAX 150 entry four game slate on Friday. Last event, I was able to turn a profit using a few simple rules (which I will go over again in this article). My success was entirely correlated to my ability to predict which matches would extend beyond game three. There were days, however, where the betting odds were not indicative of the results and I that’s where things broke down.
Because the results don’t always reflect the odds (and because it will bring a fresh challenge to this series of articles!), I have decided to take things in the direction of 150 lineup contests. This will allow me to bring greater diversity to my portfolio of entries. I can still stack matches and target the matches most likely to extend into the fourth and fifth games of the best of five series, but with 150 lineups at my disposal, I can also allocate some lineups to teams that don’t check all the boxes. The main goal for this weekend will be to dial in on the right exposures for the different stacks I will be employing. Let’s briefly recount the rules I’ve been using in 20-max contests and discuss what changes I will apply for 150-max contests.
First, when limited to 20 lineups, I had landed on strictly using 3/2/1 stacks with five players from a single match and one TEAM from a second match. With 150 lineups, I will open this up a bit. Not all stacks will be from a single match, but the majority of my lineups will still remain this way. I will still stack players from the same team but not always from the same match. I will also allocate a small number of lineups for stacks with four players from a single match and a fifth player from a separate match as well as a TEAM from any match.
Second, I only used players in matches where the favorite was 70% or less to win. The sole purpose of this rule was to avoid matches that lasted only three games. The additional scoring that comes in fourth and fifth games are crucial and matches with a heavy favorite have a lower probability of reaching those games. With 150 lineups available, I will be sure to stack all matches, but will continue to weight matches with closer odds more heavily. Teams that are below 30% to win will be used in match stacks along with players from their opposing teams, but will not be used in stacks with teams from other matches.
Third, in the TEAM position, I never played teams that were underdogs. I won’t adjust this, primarily because the salary cap isn’t an issue and there’s no need to roster an underdog in the TEAM position.
Fourth, I only used the top ten salaries for the CAPT position. I will make a slight adjustment and only use the top two players by salary on each individual team. As stated before, the salary cap is not an issue here so I don’t mind spending for the best players in the most important position on my lineup. This will obviously exclude teams in the CAPT position.
Adhering to these guidelines should give me good diversity without creating lineups with little or no chance of cashing. The main goal in playing this many lineups will be to provide a more diverse collection of entries, while keeping the focus on matches with good probability of extending the best of five series. That’s where the best lineups will reside. Come back on Saturday to see how things went and to see if there are any adjustments I’ll be making for things going forward. Until then, please be safe out there and good luck with your lineups!