Special Wednesday Edition of UFC: Smith vs Teixeira (5/13/20)
The UFC is back on a quick turnaround for more fights in Jacksonville on Wednesday. For DFS contests, I have selected a few of my favorite candidates for MVP on Fanduel and one fighter you’ll want to avoid.
OMAR MORALES (FD $16) – Morales is in a three way tie for 8th highest salary on Fanduel. He is the fifth biggest favorite of the night and has fifth best odds to finish inside the distance. Compare that to his fifth ranked salary on DraftKings and his value on Fanduel is evident. Morales is 9-0 as a pro and has power and pace in his striking as well as a great submission game with five submissions to his credit (as well as two wins by KO/TKO). He faces Gabriel Benitez who is 2-2 over the past three years and will give up three inches in height to Morales.
Caveman’s advice: I wasn’t able to find a lot of video on Morales, but what is out there demonstrates both power and pressure. Benitez fought most of his career at 145 lbs and will have to make an adjustment to fight this one at 155 lbs. Morales will have a significant edge on power. I like his chances to submit Benitez and believe he has the edge both on the ground and on the feet. He can finish both ways. This fight is currently even odds to finish inside the distance at -115 either way. Give him plenty of MVP play for Fanduel contests on Wednesday.
(At the time of this writing, Omar Morales is -155 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 61.58 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
ANTHONY SMITH (FD $19) – Over his last five fights, Smith has lost just once. In that loss he went the distance against the most dominant fighter of the past decade and current light heavyweight champion, Jon Jones. In his last time in the octagon, he sent Alexander Gustafsson into retirement with a fourth round submission. He is the only fighter on this card who is a favorite to finish his opponent inside the distance and figures to finish Glover Teixeira for an early conclusion bonus. Current odds make this fight a slight favorite to finish before round three.
Caveman’s advice: There is no more obvious play for MVP than Anthony “Lionheart” Smith. He will be the chalk play for this event, and fading him in this one is very risky. In multi-entry contest, he should figure into your MVP plans. On a card filled with new names and unfamiliar faces, he is the one fighter you can count on most for Wednesday’s fight card.
(At the time of this writing, Anthony Smith is -176 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 82.61 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
Pass for MVP
SIJARA EUBANKS (FD $20) – Eubanks is the biggest favorite of the night and due to her odds has been given the highest salary of all fighters on Wednesday. Unfortunately, her fantasy scoring is not on the same level as her price. She lost her last two trips to the octagon and at her very best, has yet to score 85.0 points (DraftKings scoring) in a fantasy contest. Her opponent, Sarah Moras, is only 6-5 as a professional, but in her career has just one loss prior to decision. Current odds make this fight a -215 favorite to go the full three rounds. The last time Eubanks finished her opponent was in July of 2016, before she entered the UFC.
Caveman’s advice: With a very small chance at finishing her opponent, Eubanks is priced much too high to be playable at MVP. She does have one of the highest floors of anyone on Wednesday and should make a solid cash play, but she shouldn’t be rostered as an MVP. At her salary, she should likely be passed on entirely in GPP contests.
(At the time of this writing, Sijara Eubanks is -355 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 73.75 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
That’s all for this week. Good luck with your lineups!